Week 7 Preview

Last weekend, the college football hierarchy was set. Now that conference play has begun full-swing, it’s time for the real games to begin. This week should not disappoint, with three being Top 25 battles (five if you use the USA Today poll instead of the AP).

Game of the Week: (5) Texas vs. (1) Oklahoma

It’s time for the Red River Shootout! Texas and Oklahoma playing on neutral field? I’m there! And by “there,” I mean in front of my large television set.

Unfortunately, the closer this game gets, the more I think it will be underwhelming. The Big 12 – though a great conference perennially – does not display the down-to-the-wire urgency of SEC football, at least not usually. There have been exceptions, but since Oklahoma returned to national prominence in 2000 with a national title, the winner has won by an average of 24 points. The table below demonstrates just how great this match-up has looked on paper recently.

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This year marks the fourth time this decade that both the Sooners and Longhorns are in the country’s top five heading into the game. Last year was the first time since 1997 that the game was decide by a touchdown or less, and many players are returning from last year’s squads, including both starting quarterbacks. Indeed, most of the focus will lie on them.

Colt McCoy has impressed me since the moment he stepped into college football scene, following Vince Young’s departure for the NFL, and he’s only gotten better. Having won this game his freshman year, he knows beating the top-ranked Sooners is possible. McCoy has also added another dimension to his game, one that rarely was utilized when Jamaal Charles shared his backfield: his running game. So far this season, he has ran for 317 yards and four touchdowns with an average of seven yards per carry. He’s both the leader passer and leading rusher for the Longhorns this year.

Both teams have incredibly high-powered offenses, but the spotlight will lie on Sam Bradford, one of the leading Heisman candidates. While his numbers are only slightly higher than those of Colt McCoy, Bradford has two of the best receivers in the Big 12 in Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson. He also has a backfield to share the workload with. Oklahoma has two running backs in the top 100 nationally in terms of total yardage, while Texas only has McCoy.

As the saying goes, defense wins championships. Texas’ new defensive coordinator, Will Muschamp, was torn away from Auburn last January to become the highest-paid assistant coach in the Big 12, and this weekend, we will find out if there are any kinks left in the new system. Oklahoma, on the other hand, has the eleventh best total defense (256.2 YPG), and third in yards per play (3.8). Texas’ relative lack of offensive diversity could prove trouble, and puts a lot of pressure on the offensive line to keep Colt McCoy safe both inside and outside the pocket.

Winner: Oklahoma, in not-incredibly-boring, yet not-Game-of-the-Century style.

Second Best Game of the Week: (4) LSU at (11) Florida

This could very well turn out to be the closest game of the week. Florida has struggled the last two weeks, especially on the offensive side of the ball. In their loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago, they entered as the only team in the nation without a turnover, then gave up three. Last week, the Gators had only 17 points through three quarters against an Arkansas team that is 113^th in the nation in scoring defense. They found their rhythm in the fourth quarter, though and rolled out 21 points to win 38-7.

Offensive struggles won’t be helpful against an under-the-radar LSU team, especially one that is threatening to take out Tim Tebow. The Tiger defense has always been a strong suit, and containing Tebow is a key to victory, but so far this year, the Gators have been more successful in plowing through the O-line. LSU has only recorded six sacks this year – three came against FCS Appalachian State – and ranks 78^th nationally in sacks per game. Tebow will be safe.

But while Florida is far superior in terms of tackling the opposing team’s quarterback for a loss, getting anybody else in the backfield has been a problem, and their run defense hasn’t even been tested yet. They rank 20^th in rushing defense, but Mississippi is the only team with a top 50 rushing game (49^th), and three teams don’t even rank in the top 80 (Miami, Hawaii, and Arkansas rank 84^th, 103^rd and 108^th, respectively).

This is bad news for Florida. LSU is not a passing team. There is a chance that Charles Scott may finish the season with more rushing yards than Jarrett Lee has passing (right now Scott has 535, while Lee has 643). A strong performance in this game could move him higher up the Heisman watch list and put LSU into heavier rotation in BCS Championship conversations.

Winner: LSU. Both teams look much different this season, but I’d be satisfied seeing a game as exciting as LSU’s come-from-behind victory in Baton Rouge last year.

Team I would love to see win: (13) Vanderbilt Commodores

The rationale behind this one is much more simple than Ricardo’s theory of distribution, or even Adam Smith’s spiral of growth, for that matter. I just don’t want to Vanderbilt lose. They are the Cinderella of college football.

Think George Mason, Davidson, or Gonzaga. They aren’t supposed to win. Maybe two games at the most. Instead, they keep on taking it deeper, and the girls above are no longer frowning. The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 1-4 so far this year, and look like they took over the SEC role Vanderbilt used to play. With a victory in Starkville, the Commodores are bowl eligible for the first time in 26 years. If MSU beats my Commies, I swear…pow! Right to the moon!

Team I would love to see lose: (15) Boise State Broncos

Maybe it’s the fact that my roommate used to play for them (and thinks Dirk Koetter is a god, which he’s not – I’m sure he’s a nice guy, though), or maybe it’s that the Big 12 and SEC are so much better, but BSU better not go undefeated this year. Sorry, Ian Johnson. I predicted your victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl when I was trying to convince my father to buy tickets, but you don’t deserve it this year. Go back to your blue turf. The Mountain West is my pet underdog conference this year, and you’re only allowed to have one. Maybe it’s that I’m hungry (and everyone knows that Ryan O’Neal gets angry when he’s hungry), but the thought of you taking up space in this January’s BCS makes me so very upset.

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