Turkish Airlines Open Fantasy Preview

With just three events remaining, the Race to Dubai race is really heating up as the tour heads to the Middle East and South Africa for the last three events. Everyone is chasing Tommy Fleetwood at the moment but that could all change with a few big finishes by any of his nearest competitors.

In similar fashion to recent PGA TOUR stops like the CC of Jackson and TPC Summerlin, this course grades out as very easy with plenty of birdies on the docket.

The defending champ has this to say about it, “I think it’s one of those courses, especially last year, where you can make ten or 12 birdies in a round.”

You better bring your scoring clubs because this is not a grind-it-out brutal test like the recent trip to Valderrama.

Looking at course lengths, grass types, location, difficulty, etc. the following five events showed up as possible pointers: Dubai Desert Classic, Portugal Masters, Italian Open, Alfred Dunhill Links, and Lyoness Open.

On top of those correlated courses, I will also venture through the record books to see who has the most success on the following angles…

Top Performers on Bermuda Greens (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger
Henrik Stenson
Martin Kaymer
Tyrrell Hatton
Joost Luiten
Andy Sullivan
Jeunghun Wang
George Coetzee
Peter Uihlein
Justin Rose

Top Performers in the Middle East (since 2015)

Bernd Wiesberger
Henrik Stenson
Martin Kaymer
Tyrrell Hatton
Victor Dubuisson
Joost Luiten
Chris Wood
George Coetzee
Jeunghun Wang
Andy Sullivan

Top Performers against Strong Fields (since 2015)

Henrik Stenson
Bernd Wiesberger
Tyrrell Hatton
Martin Kaymer
Andy Sullivan
Chris Wood
Soren Kjeldsen
Ian Poulter
Peter Uihlein
Tommy Fleetwood

Top Performers in the Fall (since 2015)

Tyrrell Hatton
Chris Wood
Bernd Wiesberger
Victor Dubuisson
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Soren Kjeldsen
Andy Sullivan
Tommy Fleetwood
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Henrik Stenson

Top Performers on Easy Courses (since 2015)

Henrik Stenson
Bernd Wiesberger
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Chris Wood
Tommy Fleetwood
Victor Dubuisson
Shane Lowry
Tyrrell Hatton
Justin Rose
Andy Sullivan

Top Performers on Correlated Courses (since 2015)

Chris Wood
Tyrrell Hatton
Bernd Wiesberger
Andy Sullivan
Henrik Stenson
Marc Warren
Stephen Gallacher
David Horsey
Tommy Fleetwood
Joost Luiten

Golfers that show up on all SIX lists: Henrik Stenson, Tyrrell Hatton, Bernd Wiesberger, and Andy Sullivan

Golfers that show up on 5-of-6 lists: Chris Wood

Golfers that show up on 4-of-6 lists: Tommy Fleetwood

Golfers that show up on 3-of-6 lists: Joost Luiten, Martin Kaymer, and Victor Dubuisson

My Top 25 for the 2017 Turkish Airlines Open

1. Tyrrell Hatton
2. Bernd Wiesberger
3. Chris Wood
4. Martin Kaymer
5. Andy Sullivan
6. Tommy Fleetwood
7. Kiradech Aphibarnrat
8. Henrik Stenson
9. Paul Dunne
10. George Coetzee
11. Joost Luiten
12. Ian Poulter
13. Justin Rose
14. Victor Dubuisson
15. Shane Lowry
16. Peter Uihlein
17. Thorbjorn Olesen
18. Matthew Fitzpatrick
19. Matt Wallace
20. Jeunghun Wang
21. Marc Warren
22. Jordan SMITH
23. Lee Westwood
24. Jorge Campillo
25. David Horsey

This article has 4 comments

  1. I really enjoy reading all of the articles on this website. You are usually pretty spot on with your predictions. I liked Joost Luiten this week, he’s too good of a ball-striker to be ranked in the 75-125 range. Do you think Tyrrell Hatton could be a factor on the PGA tour, at some point before 30 years of age? Who do you think will win a major first….Fleetwood or Hatton?

    Reply
    • Thanks Patrick.

      I do think Hatton can make a splash on the TOUR. He sort of did last year before fading mid season. At the same time, elite play doesn’t always translate across the globe. It’s a funny game.

      A lot of great golfers have gone their whole careers without majors but right now I’d lean on Hatton getting one first. He’s shown a complete package on TOUR while Tommy has been quite dreadful most weeks with his putter.

      Reply
      • I feel the same way. Fleetwood strikes it really well, but Hatton putts quite well. I feel like Matt Fitzpatrick is better on the greens than both of them, but the stats don’t indicate that, over the long term. The Brits are getting stronger. I feel like this generation may translate in the states, slightly better. I guess Nick Faldo, was the most sucessful in the US, but he only won a few non-majors. I think Hatton could win 4 to 6 non majors in the states.

        Reply
        • The strokes gained data sort of backs you up, with Fitz being the best of the bunch on the greens, or at least similar to Hatton.

          Fitz (16 ShotLink events): gained 1.7 strokes putting per event, has gained positive strokes in 63% of those starts, has gained 4+ strokes putting in 31% of those starts.

          Hatton (11 ShotLink events): gained 1.8 strokes putting per event, gained positive strokes putting in 73%, gained 4+ in 27% of those starts.

          Fleetwood (10 ShotLink events): lost 2.5 strokes putting per event, gained positive strokes putting in 30%, gained 4+ in 0% of those starts.

          From those small samples, it’s clear that Hatton and Fitz are both elite on the greens while putting is the only thing holding Fleetwood back.

          Reply

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