Since being called up, Texas Rangers #1 prospect Justin Smoak is slashing a paltry .197/.319/.395 in 23 games. That Batting Average looks like something out of a horror film, and you don’t write home to mother about a .319 On-Base Percentage. Was Justin Smoak over-hyped, or is the explosion coming soon?
Smoak was not over-hyped, and I think the Rangers made the correct decision to call him up when they did. Here is why…
Good Discipline. Most rookies love to hack at anything remotely near the plate. After all, they need to prove they have what it takes to hit at the major league level, right? Not the case with Smoak. Smoak has shown maturity at the plate, taking his base 6% more than the average major leaguer (15.4 BB% vs league average 9.2 BB%). He must be striking out a lot then, right? Wrong, Smoak only strikes out 18.4% of his plate appearances, this is 2.5% lower than the league average.
Power Stroke. While the average is lackluster, Smoak DOES has four home runs in 91 Plate Appearances. That puts him on pace for about 20 HR’s. 40 Home Runs will probably never happen in his career, as he is more of a gap power guy. However, 30 on a yearly basis going forward would not be too shocking for Smoak, especially in Arlington. The scary thing about Smoak is his speed. Smoak makes Kendry Morales look like Rickey Henderson on the basepaths. No joke, I don’t know how he stole a base this year. I’m going to assume it was a drunken scorekeeper.
Bad Luck. The league average BABIP is .297, Justin Smoak has a .186 BABIP through 91 Plate Appearances. Essentially, opposing teams are allowed to field 12 players when Smoak is up to bat. Smoak is seeing the ball well, shown by his above average contact rate when he does swing the bat. Things are just not falling, but there is no reason not to expect this to change. I would not be surprised if Smoak hits .300 in the month of June, or if he finishes with an average over .280 the rest of the season.
Comparable Players. An obvious comparison for Smoak is Mark Teixiera (6’3″ Switch Hitting First Basemen for the Texas Rangers). However, it is hard to compare statistically with Tex, since he only played 86 games in the Minor Leagues. Three other comparisons I like are Todd Helton, Matt Wieters and Lance Berkman. Smoak shows the same plate discipline as Helton, and will benefit from a hitter friendly park just like Helton. The other two both share his switch hitting ability, and also the same batter’s eye that will lead to a solid batting average for years to come.
Buy Low. If Justin Smoak was dropped in your league, go pick him up. If not, try to make an offer to his owner. If you are his owner, then stand pat and wait for the good stuff… it will be coming soon to a ballpark near you.
“After May 17th” projection: 318 AB – 49 R – 13 HR – 53 RBI – 0 SB – .290 AVG
Final Numbers projection: 394 AB – 59 R – 17 HR – 63 RBI – 1 SB – .272 AVG
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