National fans and fantasy owners across the country have been speculating the date of Stephen Strasburg’s MLB Debut all year. The date has finally arrived, and the hype is at its peak. I haven’t talked a lot about Strasburg, as I felt there was already plenty of hype on every website relating to fantasy sports or Ebay auctions. Here are my quick thoughts: sell high if you are in a re-draft league, otherwise put a padlock next to his name if you’re in a keeper/dynasty league.
Why Sell High? If you didn’t know better, you would think Strasburg is the first of his kind to be highly touted out of college, and get called up during his first year of professional baseball after posting video game numbers in the minor leagues. When, in reality, I can think of three cases within the past decade just off the top of my head: Mark Prior, Joba Chamberlain and Justin Verlander. After looking up some numbers, Prior and Chamberlain actually posted better stats during their minor league stints than Strasburg. You can look it up if you really don’t believe me.
Comparables. Besides the three players mentioned already, the other top minor league comparable’s are the following: Phil Hughes, Mat Latos, Josh Beckett, Ian Kennedy, Cole Hamels, Erik Bedard and Max Scherzer. Other than the two lefties that snuck in there, the main trend from this group is right handed pitchers with an overpowering upper-90s fastball, with a good curveball to complement it. This group of ten pitchers is also full of fantasy studs… A great sign for Strasburg’s future.
2010 Fantasy Outlook. At the beginning of the season, I thought 2009 Tommy Hanson was a good prediction for what Strasburg can do this year (2.87 ERA, 11 wins, 1.18 WHIP, 8.2 K/9). Now, I think that is too optimistic. Tommy Hanson received four years of minor league training/coaching prior to his debut. Strasburg has had less than one. Pitching in the NL, and facing the league for the first time should still yield a mid-3 ERA with a solid K Rate. However, his hype could return you much greater returns in yearly re-draft leagues.
Inning Limit. The Nationals will limit his innings in 2010. I have heard anywhere from 90 – 125 innings. This shouldn’t be a big deal, but it could cost you a start or two over the course of the season.
June 8th Debut vs. Pirates Prediction: 5 IP – 5 H – 3 ER – 2 BB – 6 K – 95 pitches
2010 Prediction: 105 IP – 7 Wins – 3.54 ERA – 1.24 WHIP – 98 K – 38 BB
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Wow! talk about a debut. Even against the Pirates, 7 ip, 2 er, 14 K is a dominant performance