As a Mariners fan, I should be ecstatic hearing the news that one of our top prospect got called up. Instead, I took the news lightly. Here are a few reasons I am pessimistic on Michael Saunders:
- In the Minor Leauges he has struck out over twice as many times as he’s walked.
- It took him 130 Plate Appearances to get his first Major League Home Run.
- He looked lost in Triple-A Tacoma this year before his promotion. He had an OBP under .300 and no HR in 93 Plate Appearances.
- Milton Bradley has lost his mind and Ken Griffey is falling asleep during games. It’s easy to be pessimistic about anything related to the Mariners.
So what kind of player is Michael Saunders? First, he has a 6 foot 4 inch frame, and weighs in around 210 pounds. Not a small boy. Second, he walks an average amount, but strikes out a lot (career 11% BB rate, career 24% K Rate). He was Baseball America’s 65th ranked prospect prior to the 2009 season. He got his feet wet in 2009 by playing in 46 games, with 129 Plate Appearances, allowing him to keep his rookie status.
Don’t Compare Me. Too late, I already ran Saunders through my comparable player list, and here are his top ten comparable players: Ben Johnson, Ryan Langerhans, Kelly Johnson, Jayson Werth, Derrek Lee, Franklin Gutierrez, Elijah Dukes, Carlos Beltran, Ian Stewart, Gregor Blanco. I think Michael Saunders is essentially a poor man’s Ian Stewart. We haven’t seen the best of Ian Stewart still, so this may not be a terrible thing. Worst case scenario is that Saunders is Langerhans 2.0, that gives me heartburn just thinking about that.
Fantasy Friendly in 2010? Saunders is only worth taking a look at in 12+ team AL-Only leagues or very deep Mixed Leagues. The problem is Saunders batting average and staying power. Saunders got called up to replace Milton Bradley while Bradley deals with some personal issues. If Bradley returns in 15 or 20 games, then the outfield becomes very crowded. I think Saunders gets a maximum of 400 AB, and that would be best case scenario. There is just not enough room in the Mariners outfield, and he can’t hit lefties very well. Saunders is the type of player that could potentially blast a lot of home runs this year in a small amount of at-bats. Then, everyone will start wondering what he can do if he plays a full season. Kind of like Jayson Werth or Ian Stewart. Stay away this year, but keep the name Michael Saunders on your radar, because the potential is certainly there for future seasons if he can cut down on the strike outs.
2010 Prediction: 320 AB – 47 R – 11 HR – 44 RBI – 3 SB -.252 AVG
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