Rookie Spotlight: Jaime Garcia

By
Josh Culp
 – April 21, 2010

The jury is still out on Cardinals fifth starter, Jaime Garcia. Some feel that Garcia is the best thing since the invention of Dip N’ Dots ice cream. Others see him as a typical rookie that will be irrelevant when speaking in fantasy baseball terms. I think he is somewhere in between.

After a 2-0 start with a 0.69 ERA, the former group is jumping for joy and already sending Garcia congratulation cards for winning the Rookie of the Year. Not so fast. Everything has gone Garcia’s way after two starts. It’s an extremely small sample size, but the luck is still glaring:

Strand Rate: 90%
League Average: 72%

BABIP: .158
League Average: .295

HR/9: 0.00
League Average: 0.98

Couple the regression to the mean with the fact that Garcia will be skipped his fair amount as the 5th starter. The result is someone you should sell high if you receive a decent offer. One other negative is Garcia’s injury history and poor mechanics.

I’ve really been slammin’ Garcia, but I’d like to point out it’s not all bad. First, Garcia gets daily tips from the magician of all pitching coaches, Dave Duncan. Duncan has a long history of turning mediocre pitchers in above-average pitchers. Second, before his Tommy John Surgery, Garcia looked like a stud in the making, and came back even stronger.  Third, his name is spelled “Jaime”.

2010 Prediction: 115 IP – 6 W – 93 K – 55 BB – 4.61 ERA – 1.43 WHIP

Conclusion: Garcia will certainly worth owning in a 14+ team mixed league. He’s also worth a flyer in a 12 team league, but it would be wise to only start him during favorable matchups. Let someone else worry about Garcia in any league with less than 12 teams.

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