Rookie of the Year Watch

This year we have three legitimate Rookie of the Year candidates in Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, and O.J. Mayo, who are also complimented by last year’s #1 overall pick, Greg Oden.  This season’s Rookie of the Year battle is sure to be one of the best R.O.Y. Battles in recent memory. All four of these candidates play different positions, and each Conference is represented equally, with two playing in the West and two play in the East. First things first, let’s have a look at what the “average” Rookie of the Year winner has been over the past 15 years:

• 6′5″ and 21 Years Old
• Joining a team with an average of 23 Wins
• Average Draft Position of 3
• 17.6 Points, 6.6 Rebounds, 4.3 Assists, 1.2 Steals, 0.9 Blocks
• 45% FG, 74% FT, 0.8 Three-Pointers, 2.8 Turnovers
• Start an average of 72 Games, Play an average of 75 Games

That’s what the average Rookie of the Year has accumulated over the previous 15 seasons, here are some random facts over the same amount of time:

• 7 from Eastern Conference, 8 from Western Conference
•  4 PGs, 4 SGs, 2 SFs, 4 PFs, 1 C
• 5 from ACC, 3 from Pac-10, 2 from Big East, 1 from Big 12, 2 out of High School, 1 from SEC, 1 International
• Lowest Drafted R.O.Y. was 9th (Amare Stoudemire)
• All previous 15 R.O.Y’s posted 4 or more Rebounds per Game

Taking what we now know, and a little common sense, we can narrow down the race.  First, we can narrow the battle down to the Top 9 players drafted (which means we have 10 possible candidates when we include Oden in the mix).  Next, we can eliminate players that don’t have a chance at 4.0 rebounds per game (D.J. Augustin, Eric Gordon).  After that we eliminate players that won’t play 30+ minutes a night (Joe Alexander, Danilo Gallinari).  This gives us a player pool of 6 possible Rookie of the Year’s.

6. Russell Westbrook.  Coming from UCLA as a 6′3″ freakishly athletic Point Guard, it’s fun to make the comparison to Baron Davis.  Davis came off the bench his Rookie year, only playing 18.6 Minutes per game while posting a solid 7.3 Assist/36 Minutes and 2.3 Steals/36 Minutes.  Westbrook looks to be in a similar position (coming off the bench), and will likely not play more than 25 minutes/game.  However, the Thunder have an extremely young team, and are in rebuilding mode.  This increases the chance of Carlesimo throwing Westbrook into the fire, and letting his core of the future grow together.  Any other year, Westbrook would be a solid sleeper for Rookie of the Year, but he’s classified under “deep sleeper” with this year’s competition.

5. Kevin Love.  K-Love has some things going for him that fit well with the last 15 year trends.  First, he’s joining a 22 win team which is very close to the average of 23.  Second, he will certainly surpass the minimum 4 rebound per game threshold.  Third, He’s coming out of the Pac-10, which has produced the second most R.O.Y.’s in the past 15 years.  Unfortunately, Love is coming off the bench which does not help his cause.  We can almost eliminate Love from discussion’s if he is not starting within the next week.

4. Greg Oden. Mr. Fragile has shown that it’s nearly impossible for him to stay healthy.  This doesn’t correlate well with the last 15 winners, who have played an average of 75 games.  Of course, there are exceptions (Brandon Roy, 57 games and Vince Carter, 50 games) but with stiff competition this year, don’t expect the winner to have missed an extended number of games.  Mr. Oden may very well put up similar points and rebounds as last years runner-up, Al Horford, while also swatting 2-3 balls per game.  Health is the only thing holding Oden back.

3. Michael Beasley. “Be Easy” or “Beastly” posted a solid 16 points and 6 rebounds during the PreSeason, so you can expect those numbers at the very least.  Seeing that the Heat are likely to be the most improved team this year (wins wise) will help Beasley’s case.  Beasley won’t be able to drink a beer legally for over a year, but a lot of people will be drinking Beasley’s Kool-Aid this season.  Beasley is definetely one of the top candidates for Rookie of the Year.

2. Derrick Rose. Initial plans were to bring Rose along slowly, but those plans were trashed after D-Rose exceled at Training Camp and followed it up by posting 14 points and 5 assists on 52% shooting during the PreSeason. Rose’s athletisism is freakish, and as a Bulls fan, it’s scary to consider the potential D-Rose has in the future.  This has quickly become Rose’s team, and you wouldn’t be “off your rocker” if you expect Chris Paul-esque like Rookie numbers. Rose to Tyrus alley-oop highlights should become a nightly ritual by the end of the year.

1. O.J. Mayo.  Mayo was not the player my original instincts told me would win the hardware, but after seeing the previous 15 seasons of data, my mind has been swayed.  Mayo is 6′5″, joining a 22 win team, comes from the Pac-10, was drafted 3rd overall, and has the ability to grab 4 rebounds per game.  All these characteristics are nearly identical to the prototypical Rookie of the Year over the last 15 years. The Grizzlies are in rebuilding mode, which means Mayo will be let loose.  Don’t expect a good shooting percentage from Mayo, but do expect a lot of points, and expect it to be fun to watch.

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