Using the Verducci Effect prior to the season, I posted 10 pitchers to avoid in 2009, as well as six others to watch that were barely relevant, or slightly older than the 25 year old cut-off. It’s still too early for the final verdict, but let’s revisit how this list of players has fared so far:
Quick Glossary
* Minor League Innings
Red Background – Pitcher having a drop-off in production in 2009.
Green Background – Pitcher having an increase in production in 2009.
QS% – Quality Start Percentage
GmScA – Average Game Score
Game Score – Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.
Conclusion: Of the 16 pitchers listed, nine of them have seen a drop-off in production during the 2009 season. Four of the pitchers (Lincecum, Jurrjens, Kershaw, and Greinke) have actually improved in 2009, thus far. The other three pitchers are more or less matching their 2008 production. It appears that this method is still a very valid predictor of pitcher injuries. I will re-visit this list one last time at the end of the season. For now, let’s see what pitchers are looking like victims for the 2010 season:
Dallas Braden – Oakland A’s
Brett Anderson – Oakland A’s
Joba Chamberlain – New York Yankees
Max Scherzer – Arizona Diamondbacks
Brett Cecil – Toronto Blue Jays
Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
Trevor Cahill – Oakland A’s
Rick Porcello – Detroit Pistons
Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox
Brad Bergesen – Baltimore Orioles
Another victim, Billingsley missing his start due to a strained hammy
The Verducci Effect is not a predictor of diminished returns, but a predictor of injury. Unless these guys are hurt I see no reason to say this is nothing more than a regression to the mean. We discussed this today at RotoSavants with Brian Burke from Advanced NFL Stats.
http://www.rotosavants.com/2009/09/verducci-effect-myth-q-with-bill-burke.html
I agree, but in fantasy terms they are pitchers you want to avoid. So, when they do poorly, the Verducci Effect wins.
While it may be simple regression to the mean in some cases, it may also be a decrease due to an injury they are pitching through. Afterall, these pitchers are all young, and coming off an inning workload they’ve never seen before.