Welcome back to the Future of Fantasy Golf Show! It’s not really a show though, just an article written for your pleasure. In this episode I will talk about the RBC Heritage which is played on Hilton Head Island.
The course is Harbour Town Golf Links. It’s a short course, but don’t let that fool you. It’s one of the hardest tests all year. Particularly difficult since they added an extra 130 yards back in 2012. The fairways are tight, but not difficult to hit. The problem will be positioning off the tee for many golfers. Many of the holes force you to club down and position yourself properly if you want any chance on your second shot. There are overhanging trees, loads of bunkers, and tiny greens. And of course wind is always a factor on this seaside location. TOUGH!
Cliff notes of last year’s preview: Avoid aggressive players (going for green), avoid high GIR Machines (everyone will be missing greens and 7 of last 10 winners entered outside the top 50 in GIR), avoid bombers, target great scramblers, and target accuracy off the tee.
Players to Watch
Luke Donald… He’s the course horse you need to flock to this week. He’s gained 50.639 strokes at Hilton Head since 2010. That’s about 2.5 strokes per round, don’t ignore that.
Jordan Spieth… He’s been in media mode non-stop since winning last week. Hard to imagine he doesn’t have some sort of a letdown. Tiger won his next event after cruising to victory at the ’97 Masters…but that was five weeks later, not the next week! There’s always that chance that he just never slows down and becomes the greatest golfer to ever live.
Webb Simpson… Loves short courses like Harbour Town. Hasn’t won since 2013, but this could be the week he finds his way back to the winner’s circle.
Zach Johnson… He’s heating up! Over the past eight weeks, he’s gained the seventh-most strokes in the field. He’s #1 if you ignore golfers with more than 20 rounds played, as he’s just teed it up in 18 during that time. High upside play here with little downside.
Charl Schwartzel… In his Heritage debut, he played the hardest hole at -0.25 for the week. If he does that again, he’ll contend, but it’s also possible he just got lucky and will regress on Hole 14.
Jim Furyk… This past winner letdown many gamers last week at the Masters. He tried to rally on Friday, but fell just shy of the cut. Missing the cut is uncharacteristic, but missing two in a row? Doubtful. Get back on board this week. In fact, he is my One-and-Done pick for this week.
20-20 Club… Nobody makes the 20/20 club this week, but Charley Hoffman is the only guy in the 15/15 club when it comes to Form AND Course History. He’s gained 20.853 strokes at Harbour Town since 2010 and 19.661 strokes over his last 22 rounds entering the week.
Pat Perez… Charley is the only guy in the 15-15 club, but Fat Pat is right behind him, as he would be in the 12-12 club, if that were a thing. It’s not. Just know that he’s got the perfect combo of course history and form.
Graeme McDowell… He looked lost before last week at the Masters. He was very impressive last week though, and that brings him back into consideration this week. He’s a past winner, can handle links courses, and is due for another top five.
Patrick Reed… Great scrambler which will come in handy this week.
Brendon Todd… This short-and-straight scrambler is the perfect fit for Harbour Town. Love him this week!
John Huh… Huh is a great fit, but just missed out on my top 25 this week. I think he’s getting overhyped due to his third-place finish here last year. I see him finishing more in the 20th-50th range.
Camilo Villegas… Sneaky good combination of course history and form. Give him a look as an off-the-radar sleeper.
Kevin Streelman… Hasn’t had back-to-back top 25s since 2013 PGA + Barclays. His performance last week at the Masters is encouraging and he has good course history, but his game comes and goes faster than most on TOUR. Makes him a nice GPP play, but not a safe option.
Heritage Cheatsheet… I’ve released a handy-dandy cheatsheet for this week on DraftKings. Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab it for just five bucks.
Top 25 for the 2015 RBC Heritage
1. Jim Furyk
2. Webb Simpson
3. Zach Johnson
4. Luke Donald
5. Matt Kuchar
6. Jordan Spieth
7. Charley Hoffman
8. Russell Knox
9. Patrick Reed
10. Brandt Snedeker
11. Graeme Mcdowell
12. Rory Sabbatini
13. Brendon Todd
14. Jason Dufner
15. Pat Perez
16. Chris Kirk
17. Daniel Summerhays
18. Bill Haas
19. Daniel Berger
20. Jason Kokrak
21. Ian Poulter
22. Kevin Streelman
23. Charl Schwartzel
24. Charles Howell III
25. Zac Blair