My model for rating College Basketball teams is far from perfect, but it is very servicable for predicting future outcomes. The one knock on it is the lack of Strength of Schedule accountability. Rather going through a complex process, which I will next year, I decided to go with a quick fix. I have added Variance into the mix. What this should do is weed out teams that are streaky, unreliable, or have benefited from an easy conference schedule.
For Example, Murray State is currently ranked 5th in my model. However, we can tell from the high variance that they benefited from an easy late-season schedule. Another example shows that while Texas has lost a lot of games at the end of the season, they have not actually faltered much in terms of efficiency. This makes Texas a scary #8 seed, considering they are still a Top 25 team by the numbers. Now here is the full list:
| Rank | Team | Conference | Ranking | 14-Mar | Variability | RankingPlusVariance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas | B12 | 19.29 | 1 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| 2 | Duke | ACC | 18.29 | 3 | 2.64 | 5.64 |
| 3 | Brigham Young | MWC | 15.88 | 4 | 3.93 | 7.93 |
| 4 | Syracuse | BE | 17.22 | 7 | 3.69 | 10.69 |
| 5 | Ohio St. | B10 | 15.34 | 8 | 3.61 | 11.61 |
| 6 | Utah St. | WAC | 16.64 | 2 | 11.05 | 13.05 |
| 7 | Kentucky | SEC | 16.25 | 6 | 7.94 | 13.94 |
| 8 | West Virginia | BE | 14.07 | 12 | 3.78 | 15.78 |
| 9 | Old Dominion | CAA | 13.52 | 10 | 6.23 | 16.23 |
| 10 | Purdue | B10 | 14.32 | 19 | 5.09 | 24.09 |
| 11 | Michigan St. | B10 | 13.32 | 20 | 4.12 | 24.12 |
| 12 | Texas El Paso | CUSA | 12.75 | 22 | 5.24 | 27.24 |
| 13 | St. Mary's | WCC | 14.51 | 11 | 18.03 | 29.03 |
| 14 | California | P10 | 11.82 | 15 | 14.93 | 29.93 |
| 15 | Texas | B12 | 13.89 | 23 | 8.37 | 31.37 |
| 16 | Notre Dame | BE | 11.18 | 24 | 8.33 | 32.33 |
| 17 | Wisconsin | B10 | 15.23 | 9 | 23.94 | 32.94 |
| 18 | Georgetown | BE | 11.85 | 27 | 8.10 | 35.10 |
| 19 | Maryland | ACC | 14.99 | 14 | 22.14 | 36.14 |
| 20 | Murray St. | OVC | 15.76 | 5 | 31.75 | 36.75 |
| 21 | Kansas St. | B12 | 12.23 | 34 | 3.97 | 37.97 |
| 22 | Marquette | BE | 14.00 | 30 | 9.58 | 39.58 |
| 23 | Temple | A10 | 10.24 | 18 | 21.71 | 39.71 |
| 24 | Baylor | B12 | 13.53 | 13 | 28.51 | 41.51 |
| 25 | San Diego St. | MWC | 10.33 | 28 | 14.66 | 42.66 |
| 26 | Gonzaga | WCC | 11.36 | 21 | 22.35 | 43.35 |
| 27 | Xavier | A10 | 10.92 | 26 | 17.46 | 43.46 |
| 28 | Northern Iowa | MVC | 13.15 | 16 | 27.82 | 43.82 |
| 29 | Missouri | B12 | 12.82 | 39 | 6.62 | 45.62 |
| 30 | New Mexico | MWC | 11.71 | 36 | 11.00 | 47.00 |
| 31 | Pittsburgh | BE | 11.45 | 32 | 15.04 | 47.04 |
| 32 | Minnesota | B10 | 10.83 | 37 | 15.42 | 52.42 |
| 33 | Butler | Horz | 12.11 | 17 | 36.75 | 53.75 |
| 34 | Siena | MAAC | 11.55 | 29 | 25.85 | 54.85 |
| 35 | Washington | P10 | 10.24 | 38 | 18.17 | 56.17 |
| 36 | Florida St. | ACC | 10.51 | 49 | 8.44 | 57.44 |
| 37 | Texas A&M | B12 | 11.01 | 44 | 13.59 | 57.59 |
| 38 | Nevada Las Vegas | MWC | 11.01 | 41 | 17.54 | 58.54 |
| 39 | Florida | SEC | 11.30 | 47 | 11.74 | 58.74 |
| 40 | Villanova | BE | 13.04 | 40 | 19.05 | 59.05 |
| 41 | Clemson | ACC | 10.79 | 46 | 13.77 | 59.77 |
| 42 | Tennessee | SEC | 12.35 | 51 | 15.83 | 66.83 |
| 43 | Montana | BSky | 9.76 | 48 | 19.12 | 67.12 |
| 44 | Cornell | Ivy | 11.13 | 35 | 32.16 | 67.16 |
| 45 | Louisville | BE | 12.07 | 53 | 20.08 | 73.08 |
| 46 | Richmond | A10 | 8.84 | 58 | 17.27 | 75.27 |
| 47 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 10.81 | 45 | 32.70 | 77.70 |
| 48 | Dayton | A10 | 10.14 | 54 | 37.85 | 91.85 |
| 49 | Wofford | SC | 7.23 | 52 | 40.74 | 92.74 |
| 50 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 10.04 | 75 | 20.14 | 95.14 |
| 51 | Oklahoma St. | B12 | 8.66 | 76 | 23.96 | 99.96 |
| 52 | Wake Forest | ACC | 9.47 | 84 | 19.03 | 103.03 |
| 53 | Vermont | AE | 6.01 | 67 | 46.65 | 113.65 |
| 54 | Houston | CUSA | 5.00 | 110 | 6.74 | 116.74 |
| 55 | Ohio | MAC | 2.38 | 104 | 21.61 | 125.61 |
| 56 | Sam Houston St. | Slnd | 5.70 | 77 | 52.87 | 129.87 |
| 57 | North Texas | SB | 2.77 | 109 | 22.84 | 131.84 |
| 59 | East Tennessee St. | ASun | 3.58 | 122 | 26.64 | 148.64 |
| 60 | Lehigh | Pat | 3.13 | 105 | 57.38 | 162.38 |
| 61 | Oakland | Sum | 3.23 | 108 | 61.79 | 169.79 |
| 62 | Robert Morris | NEC | 0.56 | 132 | 51.44 | 183.44 |
| 63 | New Mexico St. | WAC | 0.94 | 157 | 37.59 | 194.59 |
| 64 | UC Santa Barbara | BW | 0.63 | 166 | 44.86 | 210.86 |
| 65 | Winthrop | BSth | 0.35 | 178 | 47.65 | 225.65 |
| 66 | Arkansas Pine Bluff | SWAC | (2.15) | 201 | 38.38 | 239.38 |
Final Four Sleeper
BYU
Elite Eight Sleepers
Old Dominion
San Diego State
Sweet Sixteen Sleepers
Murray State
Utah State
UTEP
St. Mary’s
Related posts:
- March Madness Tip: Fade the Teams That Faded I now interrupt your regularly scheduled Fantasy Baseball Position Rankings...
As one of the co-founders of http://365fantasysports.com I’d like to invite you and your readers to check out the daily fantasy college basketball contests we’re offering through the end of March Madness. Of course, we have all the other sports as well, but college hoops really is special at this time of year. Buy ins range from $6 to $110 and payouts are made daily.
Let me know if you have any questions. – David