Prospect Spotlight: Pedro Alvarez

Vote for Pedro. That is, Vote for the Pirates to promote Pedro Alvarez. Only five teams have hit fewer team Home Runs than the Pirates, only the Astros have scored fewer runs, only two teams have a lower Slugging Percent. Yet, the Pirates #1 Prospect and uber-power hitter, Pedro Alvarez, is still waiting for his turn in Triple-A. Is he ready?

Career Minor League Stats: .278/.369/.527 , 12.7 BB% , 23.7 K% , 45.5 XBH%, .380 wOBA

“Fight” for Playing Time. I put fight in quotations because there is no real competition for Alvarez. If service time/money weren’t involved, I think Alvarez would already be in the big leagues. The current three bagger, Andy Laroche, is hitting .256 with no power, and is battling injuries. First baseman, Steven Pearce just hit the DL, and he hasn’t exactly proven himself in the past. Jeff Clement has proven himself… to be a great AAA player. Lastings Milledge has been a HUGE disappointment for Pirates fans. There are nine players in the majors whose Batting Averages are higher than Lastings’ SLG %, ouch.

Power. As I mentioned, the Pirates have ZERO power. Pedro Alvarez is the answer. During his minor league career, 45.5 percent of his hits have gone for extra bases. To put that in comparison: Manny Ramirez (45.9%), Jay Bruce (45.8%), Mark Reynolds (45.6%), Ryan Braun (45.4%), Mark Teixiera (44.1%)… you get the picture. Alvarez has 40+ Home Run potential.

Weaknesses. Alvarez is good hitter right now, but he won’t be a great hitter until he learns to hit lefties.

Career vs. LHP: .255/.320/.404
Career vs. RHP: .294/.394/.598

Because of this inability, Alvarez’s callup may be slightly delayed. The Pirates may choose Jose Tabata to be the next prospect called up. While I could see this happening, I think it would be stupid. What the Pirates need is a scary, power hitter. Alvarez has hit 11 more HR’s than Tabata in his career, in about 1/3 of the At-Bats.

Comparables. If you want to compare Pedro Alvarez to current major leaguers, here are some comparisons: Think Evan Longoria with less plate discipline but more power. Think Mark Reynolds with slightly more plate discipline. Think a poor man’s version of Troy Glaus (in his prime). Those are all elite players, or at least from a fantasy perspective, but those are what the pedigree and statistics suggest Pedro Alvarez will become.

Fantasy Impact. Pedro Alvarez is a must-add in all leagues whenever he is called up. Take a look at Ryan Braun and/or Evan Longoria’s rookie years and you’ll see the potential that Alvarez has in 2010. In all but the shallowest of leagues, I would even suggest picking him up now, because a call-up could come in early June.

2010 Prediction: 355 AB – 51 R – 21 HR – 61 RBI – 2 SB – .258 AVG

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