Is the Giants uber prospect Madison Bumgarner the next Giant ready to join the Cy Young tradition, or is he a back of the rotation inning eater? The 6’5″ frame that throws a plus-plus fastball coming from a southpaw suggests that we are watching an ace blossom right before our eyes. On the other hand, Bumgarner compares very nicely to a certain Cubs pitcher that is pitching primarily out of the bullpen since he can’t hold onto the #5 starter position.
Sean Marshall 2.0? If you compare the first 44 starts of each pitcher, then it would certainly appear so:
Those numbers are eerily similar, or even clonelike. Here are the raw (or fantasy-friendly) stats:
Looking at the second table doesn’t make them look quite like clones, but you can still see a lot of the similarities. A lot of the W-L Record, ERA and WHIP differential can be attributed to team factors such as run support, defense and just plain luck.
The stats show similarities, but stats don’t always tell the whole truth (shocking, I know). Just how similar are these two pitchers? Both have a large presence on the mound, and throw from the left side. Marshall stands at 6’7″, 220 pounds, while Bumgarner is slightly shorter at 6’5″, but carries 215 pounds around with him.
That’s about where the pitching similarities end. Bumgarner works primarily off of his mid-90′s fastball. Considering his father didn’t allow him to throw a breaking ball until he was 16, you can imagine how raw his offspeed offering still are. As of Spring Training, Project Prospect was still asking, “was that supposed to be a curveball?” Scouts certainly don’t have that problem when they watch Sean Marshall. Marshall likes to establish his upper-80′s fastball and slider, but his bread-and-butter is his nasty curveball.
Verdict: In 2009, Bumgarner’s K% has dropped over ten percent, his home run rate has more than doubled, and his BB% has raised from 3.80% to 6.53%. However, Bumgarner set unrealistic standards in 2008 by going 15-3 with a 1.46 ERA while striking out 164 Single-A batters. The lack of secondary pitches points towards Bumgarner developing into a solid #3 Starting Pitcher, but not the ace that many people envision him becoming.
Comparable Players: Sean Marshall, Clayton Kershaw, Erik Bedard
2010 Prediction:
141 IP – 10 W – 124 K – 51 BB – 4.16 ERA – 1.31 WHIP
2011 Prediction:
152 IP – 10 W – 130 K – 57 BB – 4.37 ERA – 1.42 WHIP
geez, based on what you are saying and their actual numbers I don’t see why you even bother comparing Bumgarner to Marshall. There is really no line from one to the other…
The peripheral stats are very similar. With his drop in velocity since this write-up, the similarities are growing even closer. I’m not saying Bumgarner will necessarily flop like Marshall, but he’s no ace. Middle of the rotation guy that will benefit from his home park and be worth owning in most leagues, but not a savior.