What can you make of an opening day home run? Is it the sign of a breakout year, is it not meaningful at all, or is it somewhere in between. The answer is somewhere in between. The table below shows the 35 players that hit opening day home runs in 2009. These 35 players combined to average 17.2 Home Runs in 2009. This is after the same group of hitters averaged 14.1 Home Runs in 2008. However, if you take away Adam Lind and Troy Tulowitzki then the difference drops dramatically to a 1.7 Home Run increase.
This tells us that opening day home runs are not significantly correlated with a breakout year. However, we can’t ignore that 66% of the players on this list went on to increase their home run totals from the year before. Seeing the ball well early in the year is a great sign, and may help your fantasy player pick up a couple extra home runs. However, it’s best to keep your pants on, and keep your expectations reasonable. After all, it’s just one game.
| Player | 2008 HRs | 2009 HRs | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Dunn | 40 | 38 | -2 |
| Adam Lind | 9 | 35 | 26 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 8 | 32 | 24 |
| Curtis Granderson | 22 | 30 | 8 |
| Hideki Matsui | 9 | 28 | 19 |
| Brandon Inge | 11 | 27 | 16 |
| Matt Kemp | 18 | 26 | 8 |
| Hank Blalock | 12 | 25 | 13 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 33 | 24 | -9 |
| Jim Thome | 34 | 23 | -11 |
| Jorge Posada | 3 | 22 | 19 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 37 | 22 | -15 |
| Brian McCann | 23 | 21 | -2 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 29 | 20 | -9 |
| Ken Griffey | 18 | 19 | 1 |
| Franklin Gutierrez | 8 | 18 | 10 |
| Chris Iannetta | 18 | 16 | -2 |
| Jorge Cantu | 29 | 16 | -13 |
| Seth Smith | 4 | 15 | 11 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 11 | 15 | 4 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 17 | 15 | -2 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 27 | 15 | -12 |
| Jason Varitek | 13 | 14 | 1 |
| Jeremy Hermida | 17 | 13 | -4 |
| Daniel Murphy | 2 | 12 | 10 |
| Howie Kendrick | 3 | 10 | 7 |
| Travis Snider | 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Felipe Lopez (2) | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| Chad Tracy | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Alex Gordon | 16 | 6 | -10 |
| Tony Clark (2) | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Jordan Schafer | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Cesar Izturis | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Emilio Bonifacio | 0 | 1 | 1 |
*Update: After making this post, I realized the topic of opening day performances was already covered over at Baseball Analysts. Check that out for more input on this subject.
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