NL Rookie of the Year Watch

Each year the Baseball Writers Association of America votes on who they think was the rookie of the year in each league. Trying to guess their thought process is a crap shoot. Do they base is solely on performance? Not quite, just how was 2004 Bobby Crosby more valuable than 2004 Zack Greinke? Do they base is on fielding? Nope. Angel Berroa won it in 2003 when he had the third lowest UZR of all major league shortstops. Is it based on expectations of their future in the majors? Nope how would you explain 32 year import Kaz Sasaki beating out the 22 year old Barry Zito in 2000?

Should Win: Chris Coghlan, Florida Marlins

Since the All-Star Break, Chris Coghlan is batting .360/.418/.541, but he has not been as impressive defensively in Left Field.  Of all qualified Left Fielders, only Jason Bay has a lower UZR than Coghlan.  The only reason for that is that Coghlan has played less games.  If you go by UZR/150 then you can consider Coghlan the worst.  Yes, even worse than the bunny-hoppin’, ball-droppin Alfonso Soriano.  Luckily, defense isn’t a huge factor when the BBWAA sits down to vote.  Coghlan’s monster second half has certainly made him a top contender for NL Rookie of the Year.  Coghlan was even the NL Rookie of the Month in August.

Could Win: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

The NL has a plethora of Rookie of the Year candidates that are deserving of the honor.  You know this is true when a 2.4 Wins Above Replacement player, like McCutchen is considered second in line for the award.  McCutchen has been incredible for the Pirates, you can’t ask for much more.  However, playing for a team that has been out of contention since he arrived hurts his ROY status slightly.  Also, he has played in 21 less games than Coghlan has.  However, there are 20+ games remaining in the season, so McCutchen could overtake Coghlan in that time if he plays well.  Either way, Pirates fans should  be estatic that they have a young 30/30 threat that will only get better next year.  Oh wait, I forgot it’s the Pirates, do they have any fans still?

Others to consider: Colby Rasmus, Randy Wells, J.A. Happ, Tommy Hanson, Garrett Jones

Based solely on value each player brings to their team, it’s tough to argue against Colby Rasmus.  It’s easy to bring up his .256 Batting Average or his .311 On-Base Percentage, but his defense makes up for that, and then some.  Only four outfielders have posted a better UZR/150 than Rasmus has in 2009.  Yeah, he’s that good defensively.  The bat will likely catch up next season, but for now every Cardinals fan must be thrilled that they have the next Jim Edmonds roaming around in Center Field for years to come.

Their are currently only nine starting pitchers in the major leagues with an ERA better than Randy Wells.  However, the BBWAA is usually pro-hitter when it comes to picking their ROY.  Cubs fans haven’t had a lot to celebrate this year, but they have to be pleasantly surprised with Randy Wells.

J.A. Happ is another pitcher who surprised a lot of people this year.  However, the BBWAA generally looks for pitchers with a lot of Wins or Saves when considering them for Rookie of the Year.  Only 10 wins just won’t cut it for them.  Being on a division winning team helps his cause, but I wouldn’t consider him a top 3 candidate.  Sabermetric freaks are also appalled when they look at how lucky Happ has been this year.  He is definitely on my list of overvalued players for 2010.

Tommy Hanson seems to everyone’s favorite pitching prospect, and he didn’t dissapoint.  However, his ERA is slightly misleading.  He did not make as big of an impact as I would like out of my ROY.  His peripherals suggests he got a little lucky this year. Without his below average BABIP and above average LOB%, we are looking at a mid-high 3 ERA.

You can’t argue with Garrett Jones‘ hitting stats, but you can argue with his defense, and future potential.  Although Jones has a .968 OPS, Jones is 28 years, I have troubles giving the award to a player who is likely to never duplicate his Rookie season.