If you believe in trends, or miracles, then you have to pick the Tampa Bays Bucs to win at least nine games. For the seven years that the NFC South has been around, the last place team has returned the following year to win at least nine games, won the division 6 of 7 years, and finished 2nd the other season. Do I believe in the Buccaneers to continue the trend in 2010? No. However, I do believe in them to take steps in the right direction. In fact, I believe the entire NFC South Division will be the most surprising division. Here is the full shakedown:
1. Atlanta Falcons
Projected Record: 10-6
Fantasy Sleeper: Harry Douglas – WR
Cliff Notes: The Falcons struggled with some injuries last year, but still finished a respectable 9-7. I see no reason the Falcons won’t be winning this division in 2010. Michael Turner staying healthy this year will be a key for the Falcons offense. The Falcons lost three of the six games they played without Turner last year, two of those at home and one in OT.
2. Carolina Panthers
Projected Record: 8-8
Fantasy Sleeper: Jimmy Claussen – QB
Cliff Notes: A strong offensive line should pave way to monster seasons for Jonathan Stewart (not Jon Stewart) and DeAngelo Williams. Remember that Jonathan Stewart is in his third season but is still only 23 years old, older than some rookies. I foresee a monster season from Stewart. Strong Offensive Line + Best 1-2 Running Back duo in the NFL + Top 10 Defense = Who Cares about that Quarterback position. If Mandy Moore faulters, Jimmy Claussen may be thrown directly into the fire.
3. New Orleans Saints
Projected Record: 8-8
Fantasy Sleeper: Pierre Thomas – RB
Cliff Notes: Madden Curse, Superbowl Hangover, and Regression to the Mean. I can’t say I’d be surprised if the Saints made the playoffs, but I am not expected it. Pierre Thomas should continue to improve in his 4th season, especially with Mike Bell out of the picture.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Record: 7-9
Fantasy Sleeper: Josh Freeman – QB
Cliff Notes: The Trend below is certainly in the Bucs favor, but the reality is they still only won three games last year. Josh Freeman is young and extremely talented. If his broken thumb is not serious, he could have a huge year in 2010. With the table below, it’s hard not to like Tampa Bay this year.
| Year | Last Place | Wins | Next Year | Next Year Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Tampa Bay | 3 | ??? | ??? |
| 2008 | New Orleans | 8 | First Place | 13 |
| 2007 | Atlanta | 4 | Second Place | 11 |
| 2006 | Tampa Bay | 4 | First Place | 9 |
| 2005 | New Orleans | 3 | First Place | 10 |
| 2004 | Tampa Bay | 5 | First Place | 11 |
| 2003 | Atlanta | 5 | First Place | 11 |
| 2002 | Carolina | 7 | First Place | 11 |
Just FYI, the NFC South has experienced the worst-to-first 6 of 7 seasons. In 2005 Tampa Bay did tie with Carolina at 11-5, but Tampa Bay won the NFC South with a better conference record. Carolina was one of the NFC wild-card teams even though they did make it to NFC Championship.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFC_South
Thanks for that info Brandon. Tampa Bay is looking good so far (before the beat down by Pittsburgh today).