If we take a look at historic trends, it would appear that Duke has already won the National Championship. Here are the trends that back up that claim:
Trend 1: Prior to this year, 20 of the previous 23 NCAA Basketball titles had been won by teams who scored 77+ points per game and had a scoring margin of 10+ points per game during the regular season. This narrowed down the possible contenders to the following:
BYU, Kansas, Syracuse, Texas, Xavier, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, St. Mary’s, Duke, Missouri
Trend 2: No team has ever won a national championship after losing the first game in its conference tournament.
This eliminates Michigan State from contention.
Trend 3: Since 1979, the only national champion without a McDonald’s All-American on the roster was Maryland in 2002.
This doesn’t look good for Butler, West Virginia or Michigan State.
Conclusion: As much as I hate Duke, all of these trends points towards Duke winning the National Title.
The trends held true this time.
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2012 Update: Kentucky is the only team remaining with these attributes.