Mariano Rivera

Being Drafted: 70th

Mo Rivera may retire as the best closer ever, but 2010 will not be a fun season for him. He’s 40 years old, and the wheels are surely going to start falling off. Looking at his Pitch Values via Fan Graphs, we can see he throws his fastball less and less, relying solely on his cutter. Also, we can see that in 2009, Rivera was fooling less hitters based on lower batter Swing percentages, and higher batter contact percentages.

It’s probably not a popular thing for me to say the best closer in baseball history is not going to be worth owning in 2009, but I will say it anyway. Don’t waste your time with Mariano in 2010, you’ll thank me later.

Neftali Feliz

Being Drafted: 175th

I am all for starting a pitcher’s career as a relief pitcher. However, that’s assuming a normal Starting Pitcher’s workload in the minor leagues. Neftali Feliz did not have this. Averaging only 3.49 Innings per game in the minors, Feliz profiles more like a Jonathan Broxton than any ace.

The Rangers have decided to move Feliz into the rotation this season. Increasing his innings either means fatigue/injury will set in or he will have to tame his arm down, resulting in leff effectiveness.

There is not doubt that the talent it there, but I think a transition period is due in 2010. Considering Feliz is being drafted before David Price, you can consider him very overrated in 2010. If the Rangers stick him back in the bullpen, expect the same studly performance as last year.

Johan Santana

Being Drafted: 45th

Johan’s xFIP has trended downward for five consecutive years. Last year was the first time in Johan’s career that his xFIP ended at 4.00+, so do not be surprised if Santana’s ERA is on the wrong side of four in 2010. Factor in his injury troubles last year, and his age (31), and you really have to wonder why people are drafting Johan as the 7th best pitcher in the Majors. Don’t make the same mistake.

Jayson Werth

Being Drafted: 43rd

There is no denying that Jayson Werth was incredibly productive last season. He finally surpassed the 500 Plate Appearance threshold for the first season of his 7 year career. However, there is a reason he had never reached 500 Plate Appearances in any single season prior to 2009. The reason has been injuries. Using this handy Baseball Injury Tool, we can see that Werth is no stranger to the Disabled List. He has injured his wrist six times by itself, to go along with a plethora of bumps and bruises. As a Werth owner last season, I remember a lot of close calls when he appeared to injure his wrist, but managed to fight through it. For a 4th round pick, I am going to avoid a player who is coming off his first “full season” in the majors, at the age of 30. I would advise you to do the same.

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Joe Mauer

Being Draft: 12th

Do you really want to rely on your first round pick to hold up while playing the most physically demanding position on the diamond? Do you expect Mauer’s Home Run production to stay the same? You shouldn’t.

Mauer’s HR:FB Ratio in 2007 (7.2%) and 2008 (6.5%) was nearly tripled last year (20.4%). Rather than 28 Home Runs from Mauer, it would be safer to expect 8 to 15 that everyone was use to before 2009.

The average will be there, but injury concerns and power regression make him one of the dumber first round picks you could make.

Mark Reynolds

Being Drafted: 19th

Don’t be fooled by 2009 stats, Mark Reynolds is nearly the same hitter as Nelson Cruz. However, Cruz plays in a better hitter’s ballpark and was not as fortunate as Reynolds last year. So why is Mark Reynolds being drafted 45 spots before Cruz? That was rhetorical, don’t answer it.

Is Mark Reynolds’ 26% HR:FB Ratio sustainable? Not likely. Will he still hit 30+ Home Runs, most likely. However, the Stolen Bases should drop to the 10-15 range rather than the 24 Reynolds had in 2009. Reynolds should provide plenty of value to fantasy owners this season. However, that value is being sapped if you draft him in the first three rounds.

Jair Jurrjens

Being Drafted: 141st

In 2009 Jair Jurrjens benefited from a very high strand rate (79%) and a very low BABIP (.273). The result was an ERA at least one run lower than it “should” have been. Don’t act surprised when Jurrjens ERA baloons in 2010. Then you need to account for the scare that he may have had strucural damage in his throwing shoulder.

Jurrjens is a solid #3 or 4 Fantasy Starter when healthy, but the value just isn’t there in 2010.

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Fantasy Baseball Pitching Prospects

Look for more prospects to be rated in the near future.

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Fantasy Baseball Hitting Prospects

The “Opportunity” rating is a good place to start if you want to find immediate help for your fantasy team. If a player has an A- or better Opportunity rating then we expect them to at least get a shot in the bigs at some point in 2010.

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Let’s see how Heyward grades out:

• Power.Heyward already has 30+ Home Run power. With Heyward’s 6′4″ frame it would not be surprising if that turns into 40+ Home Runs.
  Grade: A+
• Contact.Heyward has tremendous patience at the plate, and he does not strikeout at an alarming rate. Unlike Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein, I do not think Hayward will be competing for batting titles. During his prime years, I think a Batting Average in the range of 290-310 is more reasonable.
  Grade: A-
• Speed.Doesn’t attempt a lot of steals, but his Speed Scores suggest that Heyward is a smart base runner that could eventually turn into stolen bases.
  Grade: A-
• Approach.
  Grade: A
• Opportunity.You don’t keep talent like Heyward’s in the minors for four years. There is certainly an opening for Heyward in the Braves outfield, but he will still need to earn his spot in Spring Training. Expect Heyward in an Atlanta Braves uniform by All-Star break at the latest.
  Grade: A
• Hype. If you manage to find a Top Prospect list without Jason Heyward in the Top 10 then you can classify that list as fraudulent. Heyward is a consensus Top 5 prospect, and deservingly so.
  Grade: A+
• Intangibles.The Braves park will not halter Heyward’s production, but he has had some minor injuries. You have to hope that most of the games he sits out in the minor leagues are precautionary and they won’t be reoccurring.
  Grade: A-

Overall Fantasy Prospect Rating: 76 out of 80

My Thoughts: Like most rookies, it is best not to expect miracles. However, Jason Heyward is the #1 Fantasy Baseball Hitting Prospect, and could very well become a first-round fantasy draft pick within the next three years.

If I had to predict Heyward’s 2010 season I would say he hits .281 with 87 Runs, 23 Home Runs, 85 RBI and 8 Stolen Bases. He’s certainly one of the leading NL Rookie of the Year candidates and worth a look in all normal-sized fantasy leagues.

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Now that we have a Prospect Rating system in place, let’s see how Jennings grades out:

• Power. They say power is the last thing a hitter develops, which often leads to a lot of speculating. In this case, I don’t think the power will ever come. 20 Home Runs is probably the ceiling here.
  Grade: C+
• Contact. This guy can flat out hit. His batter’s eye indicates that Jennings should become a .285+ hitter once he gets settled in at the major league level.
  Grade: A
• Speed. Truth be told, there aren’t a lot of players in the major leagues that can run the bases as effectively as Jennings. In terms of speed, Jennings is right up there with Taveras, Reyes, Ellsbury, Gomez, etc.
  Grade: A+
• Approach. Jennings knows how to protect with two strikes, and he’s not afraid to take a walk. The tools are all set in place for Jennings to become a legit on-base threat in the major leagues.
  Grade: A
• Opportunity. Jennings has spent four years in the minors, and appears ready for the big show this year. Jennings should get a chance to showcase his talent in Tampa this season.
  Grade: A-
• Hype. Scouts back up what the numbers say, Jennings is a solid player, with All-Star potential.
  Grade: A
• Intangibles. Jennings has experienced some minor injuries during his minor league stints, but nothing to get worked up over. In the end, Desmond Jennings is a freak athlete who is going to make a lot of fantasy owners happy.
  Grade: A-

Overall Fantasy Prospect Rating: 72 out of 80

My Thoughts: Desmond Jennings is fast, has a great approach at the plate, and can pop one over the fence occasionally. As a fantasy owner, Jennings is a must-own rookie as soon as his playing time is there. It’s hard to overlook a player with 50+ Stolen Base potential who doesn’t kill you in any other category.

2010 Projections (these are low end, expect this or more from Jennings in 2010)

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Austin Jackson was the #27th ranked prospect by MLB.com, and the #46 prospect by Baseball Prospectus. These rankings were way back when Jackson was a New York Yankee. However, this off-season Jackson was involved in the Curtis Granderson trade, sending him to Detroit. Other than his lack of power, Jackson had a pretty good 2009 season for AAA Scranton.

Now that Jackson is a Detroit Tiger, will his “elite” prospect status be “whited-out”. Is Austin Jackson still an elite prospect?

• Power. Power isn’t Jackson’s greatest asset, but he can occasionally pop one over of the fence. In his prime, 20 Home Runs will probably be Jackson’s Home Run ceiling.
  Grade: C-
• Contact. For a hitter lacking power, you would expect Jackson to make it up with his approach at the plate, nope. Jackson’s 0.43 BB/K ratio indicates Jackson still has a lot of work to do before making an impact.
  Grade: C-
• Speed. Finally something Jackson can do well. Jackson is fast, and also smart on the bases. If his hitting doesn’t transfer over to the Major League level then he could certainly be useful as a pinch runner/defensive specialist.
  Grade: A
• Approach. Jackson’s swing is far from being major league ready. However, Jackson has been given the task of replacing Curtis Granderson’s bat in Detroit. Jackson should provide a lot of the flash that Granderson had, but the power just won’t be there.
  Grade: C
• Opportunity. After being traded to the Tigers in the Granderson trade, the Tigers have two Outfield positions open. There is a lot of talk about Johnny Damon signing with Detroit which would still leave a lot of at-bats for Jackson. Jackson should provide value defensively, and also be a spark plug on the base paths. This should mean a likely 300-400 Plate Appearances for Jackson in 2010.
  Grade: B+
• Hype. Jackson has been touted by Baseball America since he was 12 years old. As a Yankee, Jackson recieved a lot of media attention. Now as a Tiger, I think people will start to realize he is good but was slightly overrated.
  Grade: B
• Intangibles. Unbelievably athletic. He was actually a highly ranked basketball prospect, and committed to Georgia Tech before signing with the Yankees. There are also no injuries holding him back.
  Grade: A

Overall Fantasy Prospect Rating: 52 out of 80

My Thoughts: Austin Jackson has a lot of fan appeal, and may show up on Baseball Tonight frequently for defensive plays. However, I would recommend avoiding him this year in fantasy leagues unless you play in a deep league (14 or more teams). If he earns the #1 or #2 spot in the batting order then he may be worth a flier for his stolen bases alone, but he won’t help much elsewhere.

Comparable Players: Choo Freeman, Franklin Gutierrez, Lastings Milledge

ETA: 2010

2010 Projections:

380 PA – 56 R – 9 HR – 42 RBI – 21 SB – .257 AVG

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1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Syracuse
4. Utah State
5. Kentucky
6. Brigham Young
7. Murray State
8. Ohio State
9. Wisconsin
10. Maryland
11. St. Mary’s
12. Purdue
13. West Virginia
14. Marquette
15. Texas
16. Baylor
17. Old Dominion
18. Michigan State
19. Northern Iowa
20. Villanova
21. Missouri
22. UTEP
23. Memphis
24. Virginia Tech
25. Coastal Carolina

See the complete list of rankings and how each team has progressed over the past months on Google Docs.

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According to News & Record, Stanton was the first player in the amateur draft era to finish a pro season at the age of 18 and with 33 or more long balls. He finished with 39 long balls.

• Power. Stanton’s 48 XBH% is phenomenal. That’s better than the likes of Mark Reynolds, Jay Bruce and Ryan Howard. Power is definitely not lacking.
  Grade: A+
• Contact. His pitiful batter’s eye ratio (BB/K) of 0.42 suggests that he strikes out way too much to ever hit for a high average.
  Grade: D
• Speed. His current Speed Score is lower than Billy Butler’s, enough said. Yet, he was initially recruited by USC as a WR out of High School, so you have to think the speed potential is there.
  Grade: C-
• Approach. Stanton looked absolutely stumped at AA Jacksonville. His swing is hit or or miss, and that’s the way it will always be. There are many successful fantasy players that have a similar swing.
  Grade: B-
• Opportunity. The Marlins do not want to rush Stanton before he is ready. At the same time, there is nobody standing in his way. When he is ready he should get every opportunity to hit 4th or 5th for the big-league club.
  Grade: A
• Hype. The scouts love Stanton. Being recognized while playing for a small-market club like Florida isn’t so easy. The scouts are usually right about these type of players.
  Grade: A+
• Intangibles. Stanton is incredibly athletic, but suffered a stress fracture during Arizona Fall League. However, nothing from his past suggests that this will be reoccurring.
  Grade: A

Overall Fantasy Prospect Rating: 59 out of 80

My Thoughts: A combination of Stanton’s swing type and his lack of plate discipline will always hold him back from being an elite fantasy baseball player. Think of him as a poor man’s Adam Dunn. In his prime he should be good for 90+ Runs, 30+ Home Runs and 90+ RBI’s. He has the potential to be a three category beast, while killing your Batting Average, and not providing any steals.

Comparable Players: Derrek Lee, Russell Branyan, Mark Reynolds

ETA: 2011

2011 Projections:

380 PA – 54 R – 17 HR – 59 RBI – 3 SB – .260 AVG

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Batting Categories

1. Power. How often does the prospect go for extra bases?
2. Contact. How often can the prospect get on-base safely?
3. Speed. Do opposing pitchers fear them on the base paths? Do they take the extra base?
4. Approach. Is there a hitch in the swing? Is the hitter over-aggressive?
5. Opportunity. Will poor defense hurt his chances to play? Is the prospect stuck behind a perennial All-Star?
6. Hype. Do scouts see what the numbers don’t? Is there a big-market bias?
7. Intangibles. Does the prospect have an injury history? Is the prospect going to play his home games at PETCO? Is the prospect really 15 years old?

Pitching Categories

1. Power. Can the prospect strikeout a couple batters to stop a rally?
2. Contact. Can the prospect come back from a 3-0 count to prevent a walk?
3. Stamina. Does the pitcher have the skills to last as a Starter, or is he destined for bullpen work?
4. Approach. Poor mechanics? Does the prospect “throw” rather than “pitch”?
5. Arsenal. How many major league quality pitches does the prospect have?
6. Hype. Do scouts see what the numbers don’t? Is there a big-market bias?
7. Intangibles. Does the prospect have an injury history? Is the prospect going to play his home games at Coors Field? Is the prospect really 15 years old?

Now that we have a system in place, be on the look out for upcoming prospect spotlights, as well as a Top 25 Fantasy Prospects list.

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