As we enter June, we have a lot of surprising stories, but also a lot of players are playing just as expected. No one expected Ubaldo Jimenez to make the jump from #2 starter to best pitcher in the majors. No one expected the career .285 hitter, Justin Morneau, to be hitting .372 as of June 6th. A lot of people did foresee a monster year coming from Miguel Cabrera, considering he entered his age 27 season and also quit boozing. It’s also no surprise that Doc Halladay is running the train on the National League. Imagine his career numbers if he didn’t pitch 12 years in the AL East.
The great thing about baseball is the up and downs every player goes through during the season. It is the streakiest of all fantasy sports, which also means the most opportunities to buy low or sell high.
BUY
Carlos Pena. After hitting 126 Home Runs over the past three seasons, owners came away from drafts this year expecting more of the same from Rays firstbaseman. However, Pena is being absolutely baffled by any pitch that isn’t a fastball or curve ball in 2010. This has led to a .197 BABIP, primarily due to hitting an abnormal amount of ground balls. You’re not going to beat out a lot of grounders when you’re 6′2″, 230 pounds. We should see Pena correct this issue, and finish the season with 30 HR, 95 RBI and a .215 Average.
Justin Upton. Upton started the season with an ankle injury. So it wasn’t too surprising when he slugged .360 in the month of May. It looks like his speed/ankle is now back to normal. No reason why he can’t be a top 15 player from June til the end of the season. Buy while you still can.
Lance Berkman. Since becoming a full-time player, Berkman has never hit less than 24 Home Runs. His knee injury really set him back this year but he’s starting to groove at the plate. He’s no longer the elite fantasy star but expect him to hit .280 with 18 HR, 50 runs, 60 RBI from this point on. This makes him worth owning in all leagues except for those 4 team leagues out there.
Pedro Alvarez. Read what I said in this prospect spotlight. Cliffnotes: Pedro Alvarez will make an immediate impact once he’s called up.
Matt Wieters. You don’t forget how to hit overnight. Wieters peripherals are right on par with last year for the most part. Things will start falling for Wieters, and he will be a top 3 catcher from June through October.
SELL
Justin Morneau. Morneau has truly been locked in the entire year. His 21% line drive rate is proof of that. Line Drives traditionally fall for hits more often than any other type of hit, but not to the tune of a .417 BABIP. That’s lucky however you slice it, or splice it. Morneau is at the top of his value mountain, time to cash out.
Vlad Guerrero. Vlad is slashing .273/.309/.398 on the road vs. .376/.402/.675 at home. So, we have a player that’s only usable in half his games. Then add his age factor, he’s at least 35. Known as a free swinger, Vlad is swinging at 50% of pitches thrown outside the strike zone this year. This is 11% higher than his career mark of 39%. Plus, can you really trust him to stay healthy after watching him run the bases? He looks like a 70 year old as he limps from base to base.
Chris Carpenter. In 13 seasons, Carpenter has surpassed 182 innings only four times. This guy is not a work horse, and will break down at moments notice. He still has big name appeal, and his trade value is as high as it’ll ever be. Unless you like playing with fire, it would just be wise to sell him very soon. His HR rates have regressed to a normal 1.10 HR per 9 innings. That means his 2.76 ERA should also regress up into the 3.30 range. Just trade him and thank me later.
Mike Stanton. The hype outweighs the talent at this point. I gave my thoughts on Stanton back in February. Stanton has made a lot of progress since then, but I still think he will be lucky if he finishes with a .255+ average. His Shrek-like power certainly makes him worth owning, but you can get more value by trading him while the hype is still at unattainable heights.
Andy Pettitte. He’s not getting any younger and he won’t get any luckier. His .262 BABIP is 52 points lower than his .314 career BABIP. His Left-on-Base Percentage of 85 is 13 percent higher than his career 71.5%. With this luck, Pettitte could walk outside during a thunderstorm and not get hit by a drop of rain. Keep in mind that Pettitte hasn’t finished with a sub-four ERA since 2005, and that was pitching in the NL Central. Going forward, things aren’t going to be pretty for Chia Pettitte owners.
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