This is the first segment of a two-part post relating to the evaluation of baseball prospects. This guide will give you some key stats to focus on, tell you what stats to avoid, and let you know just how easy it is to find the next superstar.
Getting Started
There is no right or wrong method of starting a talent search. A website with Minor League statistics is a must have. I suggest Baseball-Reference, First Inning or FanGraphs to name a few. After you have found your website of choice, it is time to start trimming the fat, or weeding out all the “has-beens”. As a rule of thumb, you can avoid any players over the age of 25. We are looking for prospects after all.
Statistics to Use
I conducted an interview with Dave Cameron from U.S.S. Mariner to gather some more insight on the evaluation process. Cameron has been analyzing baseball for over ten year now, and blogs about it via U.S.S. Mariner and FanGraphs. Cameron has even written an in-depth look at evaluating pitching talent. You can check out Cameron’s article here. Cameron mentioned six pitching categories that are the best evaluation tools: BB%, K%, GB%, FB%, LD% and FIP.
While it is okay to use such stats as K/9 or BB/9, using percentages instead give a much more accurate comparison tool. I will show you an example of why using “per 9″ stats are less valid. Pitcher A pitches six innings, gives up four hits, walks one batter while striking out seven batters. Pitcher B pitches six innings, gives up no hits, walks one batter and strikes out six batters. If we use Strikeouts per Nine as our measuring stick then Pitcher A has seven K/9 compared to Pitcher B’s six K/9. However, K% paints a much better portrait of the truth, Pitcher A has a 30.4 K% while Pitcher B has a 31.6 K%. Pitcher B clearly had the better performance, and using K% indicates that.
Statistics to Avoid
Now that we know percentage stats are generally more indicative of the truth, I will discuss some statistics that can be misleading. Stats such as ERA, WHIP, and Wins should be thrown out the nearest window whenever a serious player evaluation is being performed. The ironic thing is that those stats are the most mainstream, and are often used by Journalists each year when Awards are given out. I am not saying they are useless but they can generally be taken with a grain of salt in terms of predicting future performance. A pitcher could pitch five innings and give up five runs yet be given a Win if his team’s run support is high enough. On the other hand a pitcher could pitch eight innings, only allowing one run, but fail to receive a Win. Even worse, that pitcher could be given a Loss if his team gets shut out. The point being made is that ERA, WHIP and Wins are all dependent on the rest of your team.
Scouting Difficulties
Baseball is a team sport, but prospectors are looking for talented individuals. For years there has been a debate over In-Person Scouting vs. Statistics-Driven Scouting. Can you find the best baseball players by seeing them in person, or does crunching a bunch of numbers in a spreadsheet result in the best scouting? I don’t think the debate will ever be settled, but I have a strong lean towards the quantitative side of scouting. After all, you can’t watch a player every day, but you can look at the box score and draw conclusions every day. In the end, it is best to combine a little bit of both when evaluating prospects. Using the six stats from above can find you a great list of pitching prospects but some things you have to see to believe.
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