This is the second installment of the Prospect Evaluation guide. The first part was focused on pitching, while this one is focused on hitting. It will discuss the most relevant stats for evaluating hitting prospects, describe the stats to steer clear of and provide an outlook on the future of statistics.
Retrieving Stats
Just like the search for pitching prospects, scouring through Minor League leader boards is a good place to start. Some quality sites include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, and First Inning. While looking through the leader boards for top players is worthwhile, sometimes the only way to find the next great thing is to combine statistics with scouting reports. This is especially true for very polished players that get drafted out of college, because they can often fly through the Farm Systems before you blink an eye.
Relevant Stats
Before you take a look at the Minor League leader boards, it is important to know what categories to look for. After speaking with Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner, the most relevant stats for finding great hitters are K%, BB%, ISO and wOBA. K% and BB% are self-explanatory. They are just the amount of strikeouts or walks divided by number of plate appearances. ISO stands for Isolated Power, which is calculated by subtracting Batting Average from Slugging Percent, and purely measures the power of a hitter. Finally, wOBA stands for Weighted On-Base Average. wOBA is a recent stat to appear, but has quickly become widely used for player evaluation purposes. Ideally, players we are looking for will have a K% lower than 20 percent, a BB% higher than 8 percent, and ISO higher than .175 and wOBA above .350.
Stats to Avoid
Using the stats from above will certainly narrow down your search for the next Major League Super Star. Surprisingly enough, you want to avoid using the mainstream stats like Runs, Batting Average, Home Runs, and RBIs. All of these stats rely on other players on the field or outside factors, whether it is the defense, the weather, teammates or just plain luck. While these stats are great for Fantasy Baseball because they are so simple, it is much wiser to use more advanced statistics when your aim is to predict future production.
Future Trends for Baseball Statistics
The analysis of baseball statistics has never been the same after the Society for American Baseball Research was formed in 1971. SABR is famous for coining the phrase “sabermetrics”, which is the objective analysis of baseball statistics. Bill James is the “Godfather” of Sabermetrics, and has popularized Sabermetrics through his wide array of books published. This revolution has led to dozens of new statistics being introduced, including the before mentioned Weighted On-Base Average by Tom Tango. We are in the midst of the Objective Baseball Analysis Revolution, the future looks very bright.
Related posts:
- Top Fantasy Baseball Hitting Prospects We have started to compile a list of hitting prospects...