Trend 1: Prior to this year, 20 of the previous 23 NCAA Basketball titles had been won by teams who scored 77+ points per game and had a scoring margin of 10+ points per game during the regular season.  This narrowed down the possible contenders to the following:

BYU, Kansas, Syracuse, Texas, Xavier, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, St. Mary’s, Duke,  Missouri

Trend 2: No team has ever won a national championship after losing the first game in its conference tournament.

This eliminates Michigan State from contention.

Trend 3: Since 1979, the only national champion without a McDonald’s All-American on the roster was Maryland in 2002.

This doesn’t look good for Butler, West Virginia or Michigan State.

Conclusion: As much as I hate Duke, all of these trends points towards Duke winning the National Title.

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For Example, Murray State is currently ranked 5th in my model. However, we can tell from the high variance that they benefited from an easy late-season schedule. Another example shows that while Texas has lost a lot of games at the end of the season, they have not actually faltered much in terms of efficiency. This makes Texas a scary #8 seed, considering they are still a Top 25 team by the numbers. Now here is the full list:

Final Four Sleeper
BYU

Elite Eight Sleepers
Old Dominion
San Diego State

Sweet Sixteen Sleepers
Murray State
Utah State
UTEP
St. Mary’s

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1. Jimmer Fredette, Brigham Young

Used on 32.1% of Possessions

Using KenPom’s handy player efficiency leaderboards, we can see that Jimmer Fredette has the #1 offensive rating of all players that are used on more than 28% of their team’s possessions. Fredette is a crafty guard that can beat you off the dribble, drop a floater on you or rain down threes to destroy you. There is no doubt in my mind that Fredette will drop 40 points at least once during the tournament. The scary thing is that Fredette is not a one-man show. Jimmer Fredette, Jon Tavernari and Jackson Emery make up a trio of trey shooters that combine to make over six threes per game at a 42% clip. The Regionals are played right in their backyard, in Salt Lake City. So, if they can manage to get by Florida and Kansas State then a Final Four run is not out of the question.

2. James Anderson, Oklahoma State

Used on 30.8% of Possessions

At 6′8″, James Anderson is a lengthy, athletic forward that is too tall for guards but too quick for forwards. He is a lot like a poor-man’s Kevin Durant in that sense. Unfortunately Oklahoma State has been paired up with Georgia Tech who has two future NBA Lottery picks on their frontline. If Oky State manages to get past Georgia Tech then James Anderson could have a field day with the front line of Ohio State.

3. Reggie Holmes, Morgan State

Used on 28.2% of Possessions

This season, Holmes has posted six games of 30 points or more. The only problem is this Holmes has no Watson to help him. Reggie Holmes is a one man show, but he can’t beat West Virginia by himself. It should been fun watching him try.

4. Omar Samhan, St. Mary’s

Used on 30.4% of Possessions

Samhan is a self-proclaimed “beast”, and I can’t argue with that. His length and wing span make him a force on defense, and very tough to guard on offense. Look for St. Mary’s to force feed Samhan early and often, forcing Richmond’s Justin Harper into foul trouble.

5. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky

Used on 31.9% of Possessions

John Wall is the flashy freshman that garners all the attention, but DeMarcus Cousins is just as responsible, if not more, for Kentucky’s success this year. Cousins may be the best rebounder in the nation. The problem is that Cousins averages 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. If Cousins stays out of foul trouble, he has no problem putting up 20-20 type games.

6. Tre’Von Willis, Nevada Las Vegas

Used on 28.7% of Possessions

This 6 foot 4 inch guard from Fresno is very capable of filling up a score sheet. When he’s on the court he takes 27% of the Running Rebels shots. Willis thrives on getting the free throw line. One problem, UNI does not foul opponents. If Willis can force the issue and get to the line 8+ times I think UNLV wins.

7. Jordan Eglseder, Northern Iowa

Used on 30.7% of Possessions

Egleseder is a seven foot ogre that does more than his fair share for the UNI Panthers. Egleseder’s game is very similar to Luke Harangody, if Harangody grew four inches. Not the most exciting player to watch, but he is so vital to Northern Iowa’s success.

8. Luke Harangody, Notre Dame

Used on 32.3% of Possessions

Harangody is Notre Dame. Harangody shoots an unheard of 37.4% of Notre Dame’s shots. That is good for #1 in the nation, making Harangody the biggest ball hog in the country.

9. Evan Turner, Ohio St.

Used on 34.1% of Possessions

Evan Turner was able to come up time and time again in clutch situations during the Big Ten tournament. When you think about it, Ohio State beat Michigan with a miracle buzzer beater and needed two overtimes to beat Illinois. Evan Turner will certainly be fun to watch, don’t get comfortable, they may have an early exit.

10. Jordan Crawford, Xavier

Used on 29% of Possessions

First making a name for himself with his dunk “over LeBron”, Crawford has since proven that he is actually a very good player. Crawford is a transfer from Indiana, and may be the crucial go-to guy if Xavier finds themselves facing a rematch of last year’s Sweet Sixteen matchup vs. Pittsburgh.

Make sure you know these names before Thursday comes around. Your friends will surely think you’re really cool when you tell them to watch out for Reggie Holmes and Jimmer Fredette, and then they both score over 30 points in their first round matchups.

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1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Syracuse
4. Utah State
5. Kentucky
6. Brigham Young
7. Murray State
8. Ohio State
9. Wisconsin
10. Maryland
11. St. Mary’s
12. Purdue
13. West Virginia
14. Marquette
15. Texas
16. Baylor
17. Old Dominion
18. Michigan State
19. Northern Iowa
20. Villanova
21. Missouri
22. UTEP
23. Memphis
24. Virginia Tech
25. Coastal Carolina

See the complete list of rankings and how each team has progressed over the past months on Google Docs.

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College Basketball has really heated up since our previous Rankings, two weeks ago. Then #1 Kansas got dethroned by the Walk-Ons of Tennessee, which made Texas the top dogs. Texas didn’t handle that well, losing their next two games.  Which led Kentucky to speak up and say “Hey guys, this #1 business isn’t so hard.”  Later that day, they get knocked off by Devan Downey South Carolina.

This leaves Basketball fans across the nation wondering just who is the best team in the country.  Since December 1st, Future of Fantasy has suggested that Kansas is indeed the #1 team.  However, Duke is right behind, and BYU keeps lurking in the Top 10.

Now the Top 25…

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Brigham Young
4. Syracuse
5. Kentucky
6. Maryland
7. Texas
8. Utah State
9. Wisconsin
10. Memphis
11. Michigan State
12. Ohio State
13. Marquette
14. Murray State
15. West Virginia
16. Purdue
17. Old Dominion
18. St. Mary’s
19. Baylor
20. Arizona State
21. Villanova
22. Missouri
23. Virginia Tech
24. Northern Iowa
25. Tennessee

Mr. Consistent

5 teams that have stayed consistent all year.

Shaky Hands

5 teams on a Roller Coaster Ride

See the complete list rankings and how each team has progressed over the past months on Google Docs.

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Kentucky’s Freshman Phenom John Wall has taken the College Basketball scene by storm since day one. However, it is only due to their recent play that Kentucky has finally cracked the Future of Fantasy top 10. Are they the best team in the country? Not at this point, but they are very young and very well coached, which means they should continue to grow as the season progresses.

Another team to watch is Ohio State. Without their star player Evan Turner they fell from #3 to #17, but Turner is back from his back injury, and they will be a top 10 team once again.

Now the Top 25…

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Texas
4. Syracuse
5. Brigham Young
6. Kentucky
7. Michigan State
8. Purdue
9. Wisconsin
10. Miami (FL)
11. Missouri
12. Baylor
13. Tulsa
14. Arizona State
15. Memphis
16. St. Mary’s
17. Ohio State
18. Marquette
19. West Virginia
20. Tennessee
21. Clemson
22. Utah State
23. Kansas State
24. Minnesota
25. Northern Iowa

See the complete list rankings and how each team has progressed over the past month on Google Docs.

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1. Kansas
2. Texas
3. Duke
4. Ohio State
5. Syracuse
6. Brigham Young
7. Memphis
8. Wisconsin
9. Marquette
10. Minnesota
11. Purdue
12. Kentucky
13. Arizona State
14. Clemson
15. UTEP
16. Miami (FL)
17. West Virginia
18. Michigan State
19. Wichita State
20. Notre Dame
21. Old Dominion
22. Mississippi St.
23. Utah State
24. Tennessee
25. UAB

See the complete list rankings and how each team has progressed over the past month on Google Docs.

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Ever since the Future Of Fantasy’s College Basketball Rankings came out, I’ve been rubbing my eyes, trying to make sense of BYU being consistently ranked in the Top 15.  After last night, when Jimmer Fredette (pictured above on the right) single handedly beat down the Arizona Wildcats @ Arizona, the time has come to close your eyes and blindly follow the Mormon Trail.  Fredette drained NINE three-pointers on his way to posting a box score of 49 points, 9 Assists, and 7 Rebounds.

Who cares if there best, and possibly only key win is against Arizona State at Home?  Who cares if they’ve only played three true road games?  Reach for your nearest pen, or highlighter.  Now circle the game at UTEP on Saturday January 9th.  If they win this game then I’m going to pencil BYU into my Final Four before the bracket even comes out.

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1. Kansas
2. Texas
3. Ohio State
4. Syracuse
5. Memphis
6. Tennessee
7. West Virginia
8. Arizona State
9. Duke
10. Michigan State
11. Wichita State
12. Purdue
13. Brigham Young
14. Georgetown
15. Miami (FL)
16. Seton Hall
17. Georgia Tech
18. Minnesota
19. Utah State
20. Illinois
21. UTEP
22. Kentucky
23. Missouri
24. UAB
25. New Mexico

See the complete list rankings on Google Docs

Conference Breakdown (# of Teams in Top 25 by Conference)
5 – Big Ten
4 – Big East
3 – ACC, Big 12, Conference USA
2 – Mountain West, SEC
1 – Missouri Valley, Pac-10, WAC

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1. Kansas
2. Brigham Young
3. Ohio State
4. Duke
5. Texas
6. Arizona State
7. Memphis
8. Washington State
9. New Mexico
10. Tennessee
11. Marquette
12. Oklahoma State
13. Syracuse
14. Michigan State
15. UTEP
16. Georgetown
17. West Virginia
18. Washington
19. Miami (FL)
20. Old Dominion
21. Kentucky
22. Iowa State
23. Florida
24. Purdue
25. Clemson

See the complete list rankings on Google Docs

The lowest ranked team that is currently in the AP Top 25 is Butler. They are #22 in the AP Poll, but only ranked 106th in FoF’s rankings. Just some early struggles or is Butler actually overrated for once?

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