Bats: Lefty
Height: 6′5″

Type of Player. Domonic Brown is a true five-tool player. If you were to scout him, it may take you weeks of scouting to find a flaw in his game. Even then, it would just be nitpicking. He has the explosive 30/30 potential of a Grady Sizemore type player. He is basically a slimmed down, 40 pound less, more athletic version of Ryan Howard.

Constant Improvement. Since 2006, Brown has improved his SLG % every year. In 2006, Brown Slugged a measly .265 while playing Rookie Ball. Currently, in 2010, Brown in Slugging .608 after 80 games of AA/AAA ball. Brown is the perfect example of “growing into your body”. Before this year, most would have capped Brown’s home run ceiling at 25 or 30. Now, those same people would say 35 Home Runs is well within reach.

Citizen’s Bank Park. The Phillies home park is quite the bandbox, and will only help boost Brown’s fantasy impact. Fellow lefties, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, have no problem hitting 30+ Homers year after year.

Prospect Report Card.

Category	Grade	Comments
Power	A-	Has seen a power surge in 2010 as he grows into his 6'5" frame
Contact	A-	Career .295 MiLB hitter
Speed	A-	70+ SB success rate while stealing about 6% of his chances
Approach	A-	Has no problems facing lefties, which is very rare for lefties these days
Opportunity	A-	Would be shocked if RF isn't filled by Brown in 2011
Hype	A	Phillies top prospect, should be Top 5 on all 2011 Prospect Lists.
Intangibles	A-	Not a lot of successful 6'5" hitters can hit for average in the major leagues.
Overall	71 out 80	Super Star potential

ETA. There are lots of Jayson Werth trade rumors swirling around. Whether Werth is sleeping with Chase Utley’s wife or not, it would be smart to open up a corner outfield spot for Domonic Brown as soon as possible.  Based on his .364/.390/.636 triple-slash line after 15 AAA games, Brown will be worth a pickup in ALL leagues whenever he does get the nod.  In keeper leagues, you can put him in the same category as Heyward, Strasburg, Alvarez, Santana, Posey… keeper gold.

Comparable Players: Andrew McCutchen, Grady Sizemore, Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward

2011 Projection: 495 AB – 86 R – 20 HR – 78 RBI – 14 SB – .280 AVG

2011 Rookie of the Year Frontrunner

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Let’s take a look at things we know about Pineda…

DOB: January 18, 1989 (21 years old), in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
Height: 6′5″
Weight: 180-200 lbs. (bulking up more and more each time I see him)

Minor League Track Record. Pineda made his Minor League debut as a 17 year old, and ever since then he has been one of the youngest players at each level he’s played at. During these stints, Pineda has never had an ERA higher than 2.84 or a FIP higher than 3.30, talk about run prevention.

A Pitcher, not a Thrower. Pineda has a lot of giddy-up on his fastball (sits in the mid 90s), but he’s not your typical flamethrower who struggles with command. Pineda has an incredibly low walk rate, 5.6%, for a pitcher that can dial it up to 99 MPH on a good day. His fly-ball tendencies would bode well in Seattle as long as Death to Flying Things is still roaming center field.

Future of Fantasy Prospect Grades

Category	Grade	Comments
Power	A-	Overpowering fastball, but his K Rate is pretty average.
Contact	A	Great command, only walks two batters per nine.
Stamina	B+	4.66 Innings per Start is a little low, but nothing alarming.
Approach	A	Will need to keep developing changeup to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball.
Arsenal	A-	His fastball is plus-plus but other pitches are not all the way there yet.
Hype	B	Not much hype outside of the Mariners blog-o-sphere
Intangibles	B-	Injury/Mechanic concerns
Overall	66 out 80	SP2 potential for your fantasy team

Fantasy Outlook. In 2010, Pineda may get a cup of tea in Seattle if/when Cliff Lee is traded. Seattle may also choose to be cautious with the young arm, and let him battle for a spot in 2011 Spring Training. Pineda won’t have much value in 2010, but he could be a nice sleeper in 2011 if he earns the 5th spot in the rotation. I’m talking potential Rookie of the Year material in 2011. Definitely worth taking a look at in Keeper/Dynasty Leagues.

Comparable Pitchers: Johnny Cueto, Jair Jurrjens, Ian Snell

2011 Projection: 135 IP – 7 W – 3.56 ERA – 1.15 WHIP – 91 K – 40 BB – 4th place in ROY Voting

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Velocity.  In 2008, Bumgarner came out of high school throwing mid-90s, and generally relied solely on his fastball to dominate hitters in the Sally league.  However, Bumgarner showed up to 2010 Spring Training merely throwing upper 80s.  However, there is hope, as Bumgarner has been clocked at 90-93 mph during May starts at Triple-A.  Bumgarner’s average fastball was 89.7 mph during his debut against the Red Sox.  That is encouraging.

Pitch Arsenal.  It’s no secret that Bumgarner was not allowed to throw any breaking balls in high school.  That just won’t fly in the major leagues, so Bumgarner has established a slider and a curve ball as well.  These pitches are surprisingly effective when you consider how long he has had to master them.

AT&T Park. The Giants home park is the 4th most pitcher friendly stadium in all of baseball when it comes to allowing runs.  This will definitely help Bumgarner, as most rookies don’t have this luxury.

Fantasy Future. Bumgarner no longer projects out as an ace of the pitching staff.  However, he look like he will be a great SP3 for your fantasy squad for many years.  The division he plays in and park factors certainly help his case.  In 2010, he is worth owning in most redraft mixed-leagues with 12+ teams and definitely worth owning in all keeper leagues.  If his off-speed pitches continue to develop, then Bumgarner has SP2 potential.

Comparable Pitchers: Sean Marshall, Dontrelle Willis, Zach Duke

2010 Projection: 92 IP  - 7 Wins – 3.69 ERA – 1.34 WHIP – 77 K  - 33 BB

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Why Sell High? If you didn’t know better, you would think Strasburg is the first of his kind to be highly touted out of college, and get called up during his first year of professional baseball after posting video game numbers in the minor leagues.  When, in reality, I can think of three cases within the past decade just off the top of my head: Mark Prior, Joba Chamberlain and Justin Verlander.   After looking up some numbers, Prior and Chamberlain actually posted better stats during their minor league stints than Strasburg.  You can look it up if you really don’t believe me.

Comparables. Besides the three players mentioned already, the other top minor league comparable’s are the following: Phil Hughes, Mat Latos, Josh Beckett, Ian Kennedy, Cole Hamels, Erik Bedard and Max Scherzer.  Other than the two lefties that snuck in there, the main trend from this group is right handed pitchers with an overpowering upper-90s fastball, with a good curveball to complement it.  This group of ten pitchers is also full of fantasy studs…  A great sign for Strasburg’s future.

2010 Fantasy Outlook. At the beginning of the season, I thought 2009 Tommy Hanson was a good prediction for what Strasburg can do this year (2.87 ERA, 11 wins, 1.18 WHIP, 8.2 K/9).  Now, I think that is too optimistic.  Tommy Hanson received four years of minor league training/coaching prior to his debut.  Strasburg has had less than one.  Pitching in the NL, and facing the league for the first time should still yield a mid-3 ERA with a solid K Rate.  However, his hype could return you much greater returns in yearly re-draft leagues.

Inning Limit. The Nationals will limit his innings in 2010.  I have heard anywhere from 90 – 125 innings.  This shouldn’t be a big deal, but it could cost you a start or two over the course of the season.

June 8th Debut vs. Pirates Prediction: 5 IP – 5 H – 3 ER – 2 BB – 6 K – 95 pitches

2010 Prediction: 105 IP – 7 Wins – 3.54 ERA – 1.24 WHIP – 98 K – 38 BB

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The great thing about baseball is the up and downs every player goes through during the season. It is the streakiest of all fantasy sports, which also means the most opportunities to buy low or sell high.

BUY

Carlos Pena. After hitting 126 Home Runs over the past three seasons, owners came away from drafts this year expecting more of the same from Rays firstbaseman. However, Pena is being absolutely baffled by any pitch that isn’t a fastball or curve ball in 2010. This has led to a .197 BABIP, primarily due to hitting an abnormal amount of ground balls. You’re not going to beat out a lot of grounders when you’re 6′2″, 230 pounds. We should see Pena correct this issue, and finish the season with 30 HR, 95 RBI and a .215 Average.

Justin Upton. Upton started the season with an ankle injury. So it wasn’t too surprising when he slugged .360 in the month of May. It looks like his speed/ankle is now back to normal. No reason why he can’t be a top 15 player from June til the end of the season. Buy while you still can.

Lance Berkman. Since becoming a full-time player, Berkman has never hit less than 24 Home Runs. His knee injury really set him back this year but he’s starting to groove at the plate. He’s no longer the elite fantasy star but expect him to hit .280 with 18 HR, 50 runs, 60 RBI from this point on. This makes him worth owning in all leagues except for those 4 team leagues out there.

Pedro Alvarez. Read what I said in this prospect spotlight. Cliffnotes: Pedro Alvarez will make an immediate impact once he’s called up.

Matt Wieters. You don’t forget how to hit overnight. Wieters peripherals are right on par with last year for the most part. Things will start falling for Wieters, and he will be a top 3 catcher from June through October.

SELL

Justin Morneau. Morneau has truly been locked in the entire year. His 21% line drive rate is proof of that. Line Drives traditionally fall for hits more often than any other type of hit, but not to the tune of a .417 BABIP. That’s lucky however you slice it, or splice it. Morneau is at the top of his value mountain, time to cash out.

Vlad Guerrero. Vlad is slashing .273/.309/.398 on the road vs. .376/.402/.675 at home. So, we have a player that’s only usable in half his games. Then add his age factor, he’s at least 35. Known as a free swinger, Vlad is swinging at 50% of pitches thrown outside the strike zone this year. This is 11% higher than his career mark of 39%. Plus, can you really trust him to stay healthy after watching him run the bases? He looks like a 70 year old as he limps from base to base.

Chris Carpenter. In 13 seasons, Carpenter has surpassed 182 innings only four times. This guy is not a work horse, and will break down at moments notice. He still has big name appeal, and his trade value is as high as it’ll ever be. Unless you like playing with fire, it would just be wise to sell him very soon. His HR rates have regressed to a normal 1.10 HR per 9 innings. That means his 2.76 ERA should also regress up into the 3.30 range. Just trade him and thank me later.

Mike Stanton. The hype outweighs the talent at this point. I gave my thoughts on Stanton back in February. Stanton has made a lot of progress since then, but I still think he will be lucky if he finishes with a .255+ average. His Shrek-like power certainly makes him worth owning, but you can get more value by trading him while the hype is still at unattainable heights.

Andy Pettitte. He’s not getting any younger and he won’t get any luckier. His .262 BABIP is 52 points lower than his .314 career BABIP. His Left-on-Base Percentage of 85 is 13 percent higher than his career 71.5%. With this luck, Pettitte could walk outside during a thunderstorm and not get hit by a drop of rain. Keep in mind that Pettitte hasn’t finished with a sub-four ERA since 2005, and that was pitching in the NL Central. Going forward, things aren’t going to be pretty for Chia Pettitte owners.

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Career Minor League Stats: .278/.369/.527 , 12.7 BB% , 23.7 K% , 45.5 XBH%, .380 wOBA

“Fight” for Playing Time. I put fight in quotations because there is no real competition for Alvarez. If service time/money weren’t involved, I think Alvarez would already be in the big leagues. The current three bagger, Andy Laroche, is hitting .256 with no power, and is battling injuries. First baseman, Steven Pearce just hit the DL, and he hasn’t exactly proven himself in the past. Jeff Clement has proven himself… to be a great AAA player. Lastings Milledge has been a HUGE disappointment for Pirates fans. There are nine players in the majors whose Batting Averages are higher than Lastings’ SLG %, ouch.

Power. As I mentioned, the Pirates have ZERO power. Pedro Alvarez is the answer. During his minor league career, 45.5 percent of his hits have gone for extra bases. To put that in comparison: Manny Ramirez (45.9%), Jay Bruce (45.8%), Mark Reynolds (45.6%), Ryan Braun (45.4%), Mark Teixiera (44.1%)… you get the picture. Alvarez has 40+ Home Run potential.

Weaknesses. Alvarez is good hitter right now, but he won’t be a great hitter until he learns to hit lefties.

Career vs. LHP: .255/.320/.404
Career vs. RHP: .294/.394/.598

Because of this inability, Alvarez’s callup may be slightly delayed. The Pirates may choose Jose Tabata to be the next prospect called up. While I could see this happening, I think it would be stupid. What the Pirates need is a scary, power hitter. Alvarez has hit 11 more HR’s than Tabata in his career, in about 1/3 of the At-Bats.

Comparables. If you want to compare Pedro Alvarez to current major leaguers, here are some comparisons: Think Evan Longoria with less plate discipline but more power. Think Mark Reynolds with slightly more plate discipline. Think a poor man’s version of Troy Glaus (in his prime). Those are all elite players, or at least from a fantasy perspective, but those are what the pedigree and statistics suggest Pedro Alvarez will become.

Fantasy Impact. Pedro Alvarez is a must-add in all leagues whenever he is called up. Take a look at Ryan Braun and/or Evan Longoria’s rookie years and you’ll see the potential that Alvarez has in 2010. In all but the shallowest of leagues, I would even suggest picking him up now, because a call-up could come in early June.

2010 Prediction: 355 AB – 51 R – 21 HR – 61 RBI – 2 SB – .258 AVG

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Arsenal. Like many great relievers, Storen doesn’t make things complicated for the catcher. He’s either throwing a fastball or a slider. His fastball sits in the mid-90s while his slider effectively works as a change of pace pitch as he throws it in the mid-80s. Both are plus major league pitches.

Closer’s Pedigree. Storen was a dominant closer while playing at Stanford and finished 28 of the 41 minor league games he appeared in over the past two years. During those 41 games, he was nearly unhittable. Storen’s career minor league stats include a 1.68 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 10.7 K’s per 9, and only 1.8 BB per 9 in 53 and two-thirds innings pitched.

Matt Capps. This guy is not as bad as 2009 would suggest (5.80 ERA and 1.66 WHIP), but he’s also not as good as 2010 suggests (2.70 ERA and 1.16 WHIP). Capps has saved 16 games already, but he finally blew his first save today against the Orioles. His job is still very secure, but a couple more blown saves could change that. However, a veteran reliever with 82 career saves and 29 career holds could return a decent package as the trade deadline nears. Capps being traded is probably Storen’s best chance of earning the closing role in 2010.

Scouting Profile. Here is a breakdown of how Drew Storen profiles:

Category	Grade	Comments
Power	A	10.7 K per 9 in Minors
Contact	A	1.8 BB per 9 in Minors
Stamina	D	He's a relief pitcher, what do you expect?
Approach	A	Simple, yet effective approach that works very well
Arsenal	A	Two plus pitches is more than enough for a relief pitcher.
Hype	A	Has been deemed Nationals closer of the future...near future
Intangibles	A	Has been bred as a closer, knows how to finish games
Overall	68 out 80	A top tier relief pitching prospect

Comparables. Joba Chamberlain, Heath Bell, Matt Capps

Fantasy Worthy in 2010? For leagues that count holds, absolutely. However, in most leagues, Storen is just a player you keep on your watch list in case the closer spot opens up for him. Storen has elite closer potential, key word… potential. He’s not worth rushing to the waiver wire to get him. After all, he’s just a relief pitcher.

2010 Prediction: 48 IP – 3 Wins – 6 Saves – 44 K – 17 BB – 4.11 ERA – 1.34 WHIP

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Smoak was not over-hyped, and I think the Rangers made the correct decision to call him up when they did. Here is why…

Good Discipline. Most rookies love to hack at anything remotely near the plate. After all, they need to prove they have what it takes to hit at the major league level, right? Not the case with Smoak. Smoak has shown maturity at the plate, taking his base 6% more than the average major leaguer (15.4 BB% vs league average 9.2 BB%). He must be striking out a lot then, right? Wrong, Smoak only strikes out 18.4% of his plate appearances, this is 2.5% lower than the league average.

Power Stroke. While the average is lackluster, Smoak DOES has four home runs in 91 Plate Appearances. That puts him on pace for about 20 HR’s. 40 Home Runs will probably never happen in his career, as he is more of a gap power guy. However, 30 on a yearly basis going forward would not be too shocking for Smoak, especially in Arlington. The scary thing about Smoak is his speed. Smoak makes Kendry Morales look like Rickey Henderson on the basepaths. No joke, I don’t know how he stole a base this year. I’m going to assume it was a drunken scorekeeper.

Bad Luck. The league average BABIP is .297, Justin Smoak has a .186 BABIP through 91 Plate Appearances. Essentially, opposing teams are allowed to field 12 players when Smoak is up to bat. Smoak is seeing the ball well, shown by his above average contact rate when he does swing the bat. Things are just not falling, but there is no reason not to expect this to change. I would not be surprised if Smoak hits .300 in the month of June, or if he finishes with an average over .280 the rest of the season.

Comparable Players. An obvious comparison for Smoak is Mark Teixiera (6′3″ Switch Hitting First Basemen for the Texas Rangers). However, it is hard to compare statistically with Tex, since he only played 86 games in the Minor Leagues. Three other comparisons I like are Todd Helton, Matt Wieters and Lance Berkman. Smoak shows the same plate discipline as Helton, and will benefit from a hitter friendly park just like Helton. The other two both share his switch hitting ability, and also the same batter’s eye that will lead to a solid batting average for years to come.

Buy Low. If Justin Smoak was dropped in your league, go pick him up. If not, try to make an offer to his owner. If you are his owner, then stand pat and wait for the good stuff… it will be coming soon to a ballpark near you.

“After May 17th” projection: 318 AB – 49 R – 13 HR – 53 RBI – 0 SB – .290 AVG
Final Numbers projection: 394 AB – 59 R – 17 HR – 63 RBI – 1 SB – .272 AVG

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1. In the Minor Leauges he has struck out over twice as many times as he’s walked.
2. It took him 130 Plate Appearances to get his first Major League Home Run.
3. He looked lost in Triple-A Tacoma this year before his promotion. He had an OBP under .300 and no HR in 93 Plate Appearances.
4. Milton Bradley has lost his mind and Ken Griffey is falling asleep during games. It’s easy to be pessimistic about anything related to the Mariners.

So what kind of player is Michael Saunders? First, he has a 6 foot 4 inch frame, and weighs in around 210 pounds. Not a small boy. Second, he walks an average amount, but strikes out a lot (career 11% BB rate, career 24% K Rate). He was Baseball America’s 65th ranked prospect prior to the 2009 season. He got his feet wet in 2009 by playing in 46 games, with 129 Plate Appearances, allowing him to keep his rookie status.

Don’t Compare Me. Too late, I already ran Saunders through my comparable player list, and here are his top ten comparable players: Ben Johnson, Ryan Langerhans, Kelly Johnson, Jayson Werth, Derrek Lee, Franklin Gutierrez, Elijah Dukes, Carlos Beltran, Ian Stewart, Gregor Blanco. I think Michael Saunders is essentially a poor man’s Ian Stewart. We haven’t seen the best of Ian Stewart still, so this may not be a terrible thing. Worst case scenario is that Saunders is Langerhans 2.0, that gives me heartburn just thinking about that.

Fantasy Friendly in 2010? Saunders is only worth taking a look at in 12+ team AL-Only leagues or very deep Mixed Leagues. The problem is Saunders batting average and staying power. Saunders got called up to replace Milton Bradley while Bradley deals with some personal issues. If Bradley returns in 15 or 20 games, then the outfield becomes very crowded. I think Saunders gets a maximum of 400 AB, and that would be best case scenario. There is just not enough room in the Mariners outfield, and he can’t hit lefties very well. Saunders is the type of player that could potentially blast a lot of home runs this year in a small amount of at-bats. Then, everyone will start wondering what he can do if he plays a full season. Kind of like Jayson Werth or Ian Stewart. Stay away this year, but keep the name Michael Saunders on your radar, because the potential is certainly there for future seasons if he can cut down on the strike outs.

2010 Prediction: 320 AB – 47 R – 11 HR – 44 RBI – 3 SB -.252 AVG

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The simple answer is very good. Through 264 Minor League games, Castro slashed .310/.362/.421 while generally playing against guys two or three years older than him. A simple criteria I often use to eliminate prospects is .350 OBP and .400 SLG, Castro has surpassed this benchmark, while being the young’en on each team he’s played for.

A lot of Cubs fans will compare Castro’s quick promotion to the likes of recent flops, Corey Patterson and/or Felix Pie. Fear not Cubs fans, Castro is not the same type of player. Running through my comparable player database, Pie and Patterson just don’t share the same attributes as Castro. Patterson and Pie were both impatient hitters who both struck out more than twice as much as they walked. On the other hand, Castro only strikes out 11% of his plate appearances, while walking about 7%.

How about the power? He only hit 9 Home Runs in his minor league career, or 5.5 HR per 162 game season. However, he is still young, and that gap power can only improve as he matures. His minor league extra-base hit percentage is almost identical to Derek Jeter’s. Jeter has managed to average 17 HR per 162 games over his MLB career. I would say he is a 7-10 HR per year guy at worse, and 25 HR is probably his ceiling.

Here’s how his full scouting cards shakes out:

Category	Grade	Comments
Power	C	25 HR = ceiling, 7-10 = likely
Contact	B+	Doesn't K but also doesn't Walk
Speed	B+	Still learning how to base run, has raw speed though.
Approach	B-	Can work a count, but doesn't walk much.
Opportunity	A	The SS role is now his to lose
Hype	A	6 RBI debut adds a lot of hype
Intangibles	A-	Mature and experienced... for a 20 year old
Overall	62 out 80	A Top 10 hitting prospect, potential ROY

Best Case Comparable Players: Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Jose Lopez
Worst Case Comparable Players: Jack Wilson, Willie Bloomquist, Jose Castillo

2010 Projection: 480 AB – 77 R – 8 HR – 49 RBI – 15 SB – .284 AVG
This projection is eerily similar to Ryan Theriot’s 2009 season, who will now be his middle infield mate.

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