Padres fans were calling him the next Adrian Gonzalez before last season, and now they’d rather have Selena Gomez. Instead of trading for Selena, they chose to trade Rizzo for Andrew Cashner and some other guy with a hard to pronounce name. Now Cubs fans can talk about how Rizzo is the next Mark Grace. It’s just how the marvelous world of prospects work.

The good news for the Cubs is they can bring Rizzo along slowly if they need to. They have a really old guy named Bryan LaHair who is just dying for his chance to prove himself in the Majors. However, I think it will be hard to keep Rizzo caged if the Cubs find out why LaHair hasn’t broken into a MLB lineup by the age of 29. Rizzo still has the makeup of a David Ortiz, Adam Lind or Justin Morneau type of hitter. A small sample of 130 at-bats is going to change my opinion, yet.

For 2012, I think it’ll be a wait-and-see approach. It will be all about playing time and opportunity. If Rizzo wins the job out of Spring Training then look for him to drop 25+ Home Runs with 80+ RBIs. Not bad for a rookie. I think Adam LaRoche just got a woody. However, you can’t be surprised if LaHair takes the 1B job and runs with it. Draft and protect with confidence in keeper leagues, but keep an eye on the situation in re-draft leagues as well.

2012 Prediction: 360 AB – 52 R – 16 HR – 61 RBI – 2 SB – .265 AVG

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Cespedes basically averaged a run per game over his illustrious Cuban career. His Home Run totals were generally in the low to mid 20s. Keep in mind that these are 88 game seasons. Translate that to 162 games, and its in 40 HR territory. Adjusting for difficulty of opponents, you have to think 30 HR in the majors is more likely.  If you watch his showcase videos, you can quickly see speed is another skill Cespedes doesn’t lack.  I can’t help but compare his potential to a player like Bobby Abreu.

Cespedes claims to be 26 years old, so who is willing to open their checkbooks after the Darvish sweepstakes are over? The Red Sox and Marlins appear to have some connections with Cespedes, but International player signings are always interesting. Could the Cardinals try to replace Pujols with another Latin American sensation? It should be fun to see the bidding war transpire. In the mean time, check out the video below to see what all the hype is about.

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Danny Espinosa: I must admit that I was completely wrong in evaluating Espinosa. I thought he would hit .230 for a couple months and then get sent back to the minors. The .230 average isn’t too far off, currently hitting .243, but he is also finding other ways to produce. ESPN-osa currently has 16 HR / 12 SB. Most of the damage has come over the past three months after a slow April. If he keeps this pace up, we may be looking at a 25/20 Second Baseman, yikes.

Freddie Freeman: Another rookie that got off to a terrible start. Freeman hit .225/.324/.393 in April but he has been doing his best Todd Helton impersonation since then. Now that he is slotted in the clean-up spot, he should be worth owning in all fantasy leagues.

Darwin Barney: Unlike Espinosa and Freeman, Barney came out scorching in April and has been sneaky good ever since. However, you can throw him out of the ROY equation because his lack of power. If you can’t steal 40+ bases or hit .320+, but better hit 15+ HR’s. Barney does none of these things. Barney is a solid player, but not an award-winner.

Mark Trumbo: Trumbo has filled in quite nicely for the injured Kendrys Morales. 25/10 from the 1B position is not too shabby at all for a rookie 1B. Barring a huge second-half, Trumbo will also be on the outside looking in when it comes to the AL ROY award.

Rookies on the Prowl: Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackley, Ben Revere, Domonic Brown, Jemile Weeks

Pitchers are less common winners of the ROY award, but that doesn’t mean we should count them out. Here are the top rookie pitchers in the league, so far:

Michael Pineda: Prince Pineda has turned in 13 Quality Starts in his 18 starts, and has generally been lights out all year. He has the wins as well as the strikeouts to make him the current favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. The only issue would be if/when the Mariners shut him down early.

Craig Kimbrel: It is not uncommon for closers to win the ROY award. Three of the last six pitchers to win the award have been closers. At the All-Star Break, Kimbrel already has 28 saves while sporting a 2.35 ERA and a 2.0 WAR. Considering how weak the rookie hitting class has performed so far, Kimbrel just may be the current favorite for NL Rookie of the Year.

Zach Britton: Britton’s hard sinker was unhittable for two months but he has slowly been sliding since then. It would appear that the league has “figured him out” for the time being. Now is the time when great pitchers adapt and fix their weaknesses that have been exposed. If Britton pulls it together and finishes strong we are looking at a future ace. Otherwise he will just be a very good, yet hittable #2 or #3 pitcher.

Brandon Beachy: When he has been healthy, Beachy has been stellar. He has 8 Quality Starts in 12 attempts. Beachy may be one of the best rookie pitchers for fantasy owners, but will likely be overlooked for the ROY award if he can’t bring his Win Total up above 10.

Other Pitchers to Watch: Jordan Walden, Cory Luebke, Josh Collmenter, Jeremy Hellickson

The Rookie of the Year awards are given out by league, not by pitcher/hitter. So, here is how I see the Award for each respective league shaking out:

National League Rookie of the Year

1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Freddie Freeman
3. Danny Espinosa
4. Brandon Beachy
5. Domonic Brown

American League Rookie of the Year

1. Michael Pineda
2. Eric Hosmer
3. Jordan Walden
4. Mark Trumbo
5. Dustin Ackley

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AL East

Boston Red Sox

Adrian Gonzalez: Involved in 26.29% of Team Runs. No surprise here. That’s why they went out and got him in the off-season. To drive in runs and spread his opinions about illegal immigration.

New York Yankees

Curtis Granderson: Involved in 25.15% of Team Runs. It’s amazing what a year of acclimation to New York can do for a young lad. Read what I said about Granderson in my Preseason Top 25 Outfielder Rankings. I looked to be higher than most on Grandy at the time. Now the projection looks ridiculously low.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Bautista: Involved in 22.91% of Team Runs. Bautista may be the best hitter in baseball right now but he’s not even in the Top 10 on the MVP Tracker. It makes sense if you think about it. Without Bautista, the Jays lineup is still pretty damn good. Damn good, I say.

Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Joyce: Involved in 22.38% of Team Runs. Joyce was the hottest hitter in the month of May. His shoulder may be bothering him a little, but he should pick it back up again, soon.

Baltimore Orioles

Adam Jones: Involved in 22.05% of Team Runs. Adam ‘Not Pac Man’ Jones has teased fantasy owners like myself for three years. Now that he’s hitting in the three spot, his current pace of 78-22-91-13 looks to be on the low side.

AL Central

Detroit Tigers

Miguel Cabrera: Involved in 27.33% of Team Runs. No surprises here. The DUI distractions proved not to be a distraction at all.

Cleveland Indians

Asdrubal Cabrera: Involved in 25.35% of Team Runs. Even the biggest Asdrubal Cabrera fans didn’t expect this kind of return. He has already doubled his previous HR high with 12 through the first 65 games.

Chicago White Sox

Alexei Ramirez: Involved in 23.88% of Team Runs. Alexei is scoring a ton of runs (42 through 65 games). Fantasy owners are wondering when the steals are going to come. They can’t complain with 95+ runs though.

Kansas City Royals

Melky Cabrera: Involved in 23.68% of Team Runs. Before the season started, I was calling for Lorenzo Cain over Melky Cabrera. Now I look and feel foolish.

Minnesota Twins

Jason Kubel: Involved in 18.29% of Team Runs. Times have been tough for the Twinkies. Jason Kubel should not be your Most Valuable Hitter. Ever.

AL West

Texas Rangers

Adrian Beltre: Involved in 23.34% of Team Runs. The Mariners would love to have Adrian back right now instead of Mendoza Figgins.

Oakland Athletics

Josh Willingham: Involved in 22.95% of Team Runs. This really says more about the A’s lineup than anything. There number one producer is hitting .234 and has only scored 25 runs. With pitching like they have, hitting is not all that important.

Seattle Mariners

Ichiro Suzuki: Involved in 22.54% of Team Runs. Another team that relies solely on pitching to win ballgames. Ichiro is having a down year so far, only hitting .265 through 67 games. His 200-hit seasons streak is going to be very interesting at this pace.

Los Angeles Angels

Torii Hunter: Involved in 21.32% of Team Runs. Another AL West team, another team loaded with pitching. Hunter is slashing .228/.307/.365, yet he is their Most Valuable Hitter. They could really use some help ASAP. Trout, [cough] excuse me.

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

Ryan Howard: Involved in 26.81% of Team Runs. Nothing new here.  Ryan Howard is the anchor of the Phillies lineup.  The same Phillies lineup that has been a little worse than years past.  Howard is still doing big things.

New York Mets

Jose Reyes: Involved in 26.07% of Team Runs. The trade rumors certainly aren’t affecting Reyes. Nobody doubted Jose Reyes talent when he is healthy. Staying healthy is the hardest part for Reyes. Reyes is only 8 steals away from his 2010 total. Hell, he could get that in a couple of weeks.

Florida Marlins

Gaby Sanchez: Involved in 24.91% of Team Runs. If you told a Marlins fan before the season that they were only 10 games back after 70 games with Hanley Ramirez hitting .205 they might not be too upset. That was a trick statement, what are Marlins fans?

Atlanta Braves

Martin Prado: Involved in 23.11% of Team Runs. The Braves aren’t exactly a force to be reckoned with at the plate. Their Team MVP, Martin, Prado, has been on the DL for a week now. If they can get their hitters healthy all at once, they may be able to make a run at the Phillies for the NL East title.

Washington Nationals

Danny Espinosa: Involved in 22.53% of Team Runs. This is just sad to see. Danny EspN is hitting .221 but he is the Nats #1 guy. He is a great example of ‘old-man’ skills.

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers

Ryan Braun: Involved in 28.52% of Team Runs. Fantasy owners that were lucky enough to get Braun are ecstatic about his steals. The 16 steals he currently has is only 4 less than his career high. The rest of his number ain’t too shabby, either. Braun is the cream of the crop.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Neil Walker: Involved in 28.46% of Team Runs. The Batting Average may not be there for Walker but he is producing when it counts. Walker is slashing .304/.359/.513 with Runners On. That OPS is 273 points higher than With the Bases Empty.

Houston Astros

Hunter Pence: Involved in 27.41% of Team Runs. Pence is on pace to easily break his career high RBI total. However, nobody else manages to hit Pence in. That seems to be the #1 problem in Houston right now. Hunter is a one-man show, and their farm team is not exactly ripe with hitting talent.

Chicago Cubs

Starlin Castro: Involved in 24.62% of Team Runs. Starlin has been the lone bright spot during the Cubs abysmal season. Things aren’t getting better for the Cubbies anytime soon. Good thing the Bleacher Creatures don’t care about winning. They are happy as long as their cup is filled with a cold Old Style.

Cincinnati Reds

Joey Votto: Involved in 23.96% of Team Runs. If I write this article a week ago, this is Jay Bruce. However, Bruce is really slumping since June hit. Somebody should turn the calendar in the Reds clubhouse back to May.

St. Louis Cardinals

Albert Pujols: Involved in 22.42% of Team Runs. Pujols is having a down year, but he is still the top dog on the Cards. Last year Pujols’ Level of Involvement was 26 percent. The Cardinals may be relying less and less on Pujols, but they are still seven games over 500.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Matt Kemp: Involved in 30.86% of Team Runs. No Rihanna, no Torre = Matt ‘MVP’ Kemp. If the season ended right now I think the NL MVP would have to goto Matt Kemp or Ryan Braun. On pace for a 47 HR, 37 SB season. Wow. Just wow.

San Diego Padres

Ryan Ludwick: Involved in 26.96% of Team Runs. Ludwick was the most surprising Team MVP. Not because he was the Padres’ MVP, but just how important he is to the Padres. Sadly, almost all his production has come while hitting 5th or 6th. I asy sadly because he is no longer hitting that low in the lineup. Instead, he is becoming an automatic out while hitting clean-up.

Colorado Rockies

Carlos Gonzalez: Involved in 23.55% of Team Runs. Even though his numbers aren’t anywhere near last years, he is still crucial to the Rockies success. The good news for Rockies fans is that CarGo hit .363/.412/.679 after the Break last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Stephen Drew: Involved in 22.43% of Team Runs. Who would have guessed Stephen Drew would have more RBI’s than Justin Upton?

San Francisco Giants

Aubrey Huff: Involved in 20.34% of Team Runs. This is a sad offensive lineup, but help is on the way. Kung Fu Panda is finally back from injury and ready to take control of the lineup.

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To have a little MVP fun, I decided to make up a stat. Sounds fun already, right? Who doesn’t love making up new stats? I call this one Level of Involvement (LOI). This stat will determine how vital each player is to their team’s offensive success. We can accomplish this by adding up a players Runs and RBIs, subtracting their Home Runs and then dividing that number by their teams overall runs scored. The final number will be the percentage of team runs each player is involved in.

Level of Involvement Top 30

Who knew Neil Walker was so important to the Pirates success? Ryan Ludwick at #6 was also a shocker to me. This is a quick and easy way to narrow down the Most Valuable Player, Rookie of the Year, or any award for that matter. We will definitely be using this a lot as the season progresses.

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Lyles is a large presence on the mound, 6 feet 4 inches tall, but that size doesn’t correlate to pitch speed. His fastball generally sits in the 89-93 range. Similar in a lot of ways to other skyscrapers, Adam Wainwright or Aaron Harang. Like Wainwright and Harang, Lyles is able to use his height to make his pitching mechanics look smooth and effortless.

Most scouts disagree on what his best offering is, but they all agree that his his ability to locate is top-notch. He controls the strike zone with all his pitches. He is never afraid to pull any pitch out of his bag, no matter the hitter or count.

Lyles has pitching in his DNA, so he should have no troubles adapting to MLB hitters. Like all rookies, he may have a rough patch or two, but he is certainly worth adding in all NL-Only leagues. He is even worth a look in 12+ team mixed leagues. I think at worst he posts a four ERA with a handful of wins while striking out at least six batters per nine. The Houston Astros pitching staff is shaping up to be one of the most underrated staff’s in all of baseball. Don’t be shocked if their pitching staff leds them out of the NL Central cellar and makes a little noise.

Comparable Pitchers: Jair Jurrjens, Adam Wainwright, Aaron Harang

2011 Prediction: 124 IP – 6 W – 92 K – 44 BB – 3.58 ERA – 1.12 WHIP

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The first step is to identify some basic stats that can identify players you can buy low or sell high. For pitchers, you should look to stats such as xFIP and LOB%. We have talked about xFIP many times. Just in case you forgot, xFIP stands Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It is the best indicator for predicting a pitchers’ future ERA. If Pitcher A has a 2.50 xFIP but a 4.75 ERA, you can bet your biscuits that he has been incredibly unlucky. Next, LOB% stands for Left on Base Percentage. The league average is usually in the low 70′s. If Pitcher B has left 85% of runners on base, you can expect his ERA to raise quite a bit as his LOB% regresses back to normal. After all, hits are generally random. If hitters are stringing together multiple hits at a time against a pitcher that pitcher is either A) really bad B) really unlucky or C) has a mental problem. These two stats are a couple basic ones to get you started on your way to becoming a smarter trader.

The next step is very important. Determine if your trading partner uses advanced stats. Is the answer No? Then it is safe to use these stats to make some offers for buy-low players or get rid of some sell-highs. If you know they use advanced stats, it’s time for some reverse psychology. I will use Jaime Garcia as an example. Garcia currently sports a 1.93 ERA, has stranded 75.2% of baserunners and has a 2.84 xFIP. In theory, we have seen the best of Jaime Garcia and he can only get worse as the season goes on. Because of this, a manager that uses advanced stats may be willing to “sell high” while his ERA is still under two. We may have seen the best, but you even with a regression, we are looking a sub-3.00 ERA, solid strikeouts and he plays for a division-leading club.

In case you are in a league where you don’t know everyone on a personal level, there are some indicators that a league-mate is this type of manager. One, he will try to include the hot hitter he just picked up in a trade offer. Two, he consistently offers pitchers with a lower ERA than xFIP. If you notice a manager keeps trying to sell high on you, it’s time to deploy the switcharoo on him and trick him into “selling high” on good players.

The same can be done for hitting stats. For hitters, one stat you can take a look at BABIP. In most cases, Batting Average on Balls In Play is a great indicator of how lucky is hitter has been. The league average is usually around 30%. It’s best to keep BABIP in context with a players career BABIP. Much like xFIP, BABIP is a great stat to use for predicting future performance. If you are looking for buy-low candidates, a simple method is to start with all players with a BABIP under .250 for the season.

Consider this an introductory course on how to spot buy-low and sell-high candidates. However, it is only the beginning when it comes to trading. What advanced stats do you look at before trading? What trading methods have worked well in your fantasy baseball leagues?

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I’ve come up with three theories on why we no longer see monster-strikeout games:

1. Pitchers in this era are being treated with kid gloves.
2. Umpires are being monitored more closely.
3. MLB is lacking an elite strikeout pitcher.

First, let’s look at whether pitchers are being handled with too much caution. An easy way to check this is to compare the average Innings Pitched per start by the top strikeout pitchers. In 1996, the top five strikeout pitchers averaged 6.95 innings per start. In 2010 the same average was 6.90 innings per start. All the years in between are pretty darn close to that range, as well. It’s obvious that pitchers are handled with more caution than back in the dead-ball era. However, this is not a new phenomenon, and does not account for the monster-strikeout game drought.

Second, let’s look at the umpires impact on the game. There have been a lot of technological advances over the past decade. QuesTec and Zone Evaluation are two examples of how an umpires balls & strike calls are now being monitored as closely as Marlo’s cell phone in The Wire. Maybe these technological advances have led to a decrease in overall strikeouts, making a large strikeout game harder to accomplish, right? Wrong. The Chart below shows that total strikeouts are actually steadily increasing. 2010 produced the largest number of strikeouts over the past 15 seasons.

After we’ve rejected the first two hypotheses, the third thing we need to ask whether pitchers have just gotten worse over time. As far-fetched as it seems, this is the closest we come to an answer. Of the twenty-six 18+ strikeout games since 1960, 12 of them have come from Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens or Nolan Ryan. That is 46%. There just aren’t many pitcher that are as dominant as these pitchers. Technology might be the biggest factor that pitchers have to battle. It is not uncommon for hitters to go in the clubhouse after striking out to get ready for their next At Bat.

After reviewing every angle, it’s impossible to tell why there hasn’t been a 18+ strikeout game in over seven years. Has technology handcuffed the big-strikeout pitcher or do we just need to wait for the next Randy Johnson? Stephen Strasburg, Michael Pineda, Julio Teheran, Matt Moore… anyone could be the next great. Only time will tell.

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When it comes to betting baseball, even the squarest of bettors know it’s important to look at bullpen strength. How you look at bullpen stats is what separates the “squares” from the “sharps”. The first rule is to remember Home vs. Road Splits. Whether it is familiarity with the environment or it is the crowd riding the umpire for calls, bullpen’s are much better at home. For example, in 2010 there were four teams with Road ERA’s over five. Conversely, the WORST Home ERA was 4.66.

Second Rule: Don’t use ERA when determining the strength of a bullpen. Oops, I just broke my own rule in the paragraph above. Luckily, we didn’t know about Rule #2 yet, so we’ll let it slide. The preferred method I like to use when gauging a bullpen for future success is xFIP. This removes a lot of luck from the equation Over the course of a season, the two numbers will start to merge as luck tends to even out. In fact, in 2010, two-thirds of all teams’ ERA landed within 0.46 points of their xFIP. Currently in 2011 there is a lot more variance separating ERA and xFIP. Using the same cutoff of two-thirds, all bullpen ERA’s are within 0.82 of their xFIP’s. Not bad, but it will get a lot closer as the season progresses.

Let’s look at the Philadelphia Phillies. They are currently the luckiest bullpen, according to xFIP. They have a 4.40 xFIP yet they have a very generous 2.96 ERA. According to xFIP, we should expect the Phillies bullpen ERA to be closer to 4.00 than 3.00 by the end of the season. The Phillies are a prime example of an overrated bullpen.

Top Five Luckiest Bullpens
1. Philadelphia Phillies — 2.96 ERA — 4.40 xFIP
2. San Diego Padres — 2.13 ERA — 3.49 xFIP
3. Tampa Bay Rays — 3.24 ERA — 4.60 xFIP
4. Florida Marlins — 2.62 ERA — 3.88 xFIP
5. Oakland A’s — 2.73 ERA — 3.98 xFIP

Top Five Unluckiest Bullpens
1. LA Dodgers — 5.08 ERA — 3.82 xFIP
2. Detroit Tigers — 5.35 ERA — 4.16 xFIP
3. Houston Astros — 5.06 ERA — 3.97 xFIP
4. Baltimore Orioles — 4.87 ERA — 4.02 xFIP
5. Boston Red Sox — 4.55 ERA — 3.85 xFIP

The last thing to look at is Bullpen Usage. If King Felix and Prince Pineda were to pitch back to back complete games, the Mariners are going to have their best bullpen arms available in the next game and vis-versa. The key here is bullpen depth. Make note of teams that only have a couple good pitchers in the bullpen. These are teams you can avoid, or even fade when their bullpen is overworked. Other teams like the Braves, Padres and Rockies have arms for days. Even if the bullpen is overworked, they have plenty of solid arms to throw at you.

Knowing these three Bullpen Rules can take you a long way on your journey to becoming a successful baseball bettor.

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When rookies arrive in the Majors it means another “unknown” player to consider. Fantasy owners will see a new name like Mike Wilson and immediately scour to find out whether he is worth owning. In this case the answer is no. Mike Wilson has a large, athletic body but his role will likely be too limited to provide value.

Wilson’s role will be to platoon against left-handed pitchers and provide pinch-hitting. He won’t hit for average, or get more than 300 AB’s. He can provide a little power, which is much needed in Seattle. If he plays well before Franklin Gutierrez returns, he could stick around for 250-300 ABs in 2011. If not, his stay in the Majors may be short-lived, sadly. As a Mariners fan, I will be routing for the former scenario. Unless you are in a deep 16 team AL-Only league, you can leave Mike Wilson alone. In fact, forget you ever read this and don’t ever speak of Mike Wilson again.

Comparable Players: Ben Johnson, Michael Restovich, Ryan Ludwick

2011 Prediction: 250 AB – 34 R – 9 HR – 34 RBI – 4 SB – .252 AVG

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