We have just passed the 20% Plateau of the Fantasy NBA Season. A perfect way to celebrate this milestone is by doing a Buy Low, Sell High Column. In lame, inactive leagues you may be able to draft your squad and then just coast to victory. However, in an active and competitive league, Free Agent pickups and Trades are the key to victory when all is said and done. Knowing when to “buy” the slumping Fantasy Star, or when to dump your streaking dud of a player is vital. Here are six players to recycle, and six players that are ready to kick it up a notch…
SELL HIGH
Jason Kidd. Kidd is flat-out old, 36 years of age by the end of the season. Kidd no longer contributes in the Points column like he used to, he will hover around 10 PPG this season. Through 15 games, Kidd is ranked in the Top 10 based on most ranking system thanks to his unusually high FG% and 2.5 Steals Per Game. Kidd is a 40.2% Career shooter from the field, so you can place his current 47% under the “mirage” category. Then, the 2.5 Steals Per Game for a 35 year-old is just silly, and you can’t expect that to continue. Not even the great John Stockton could keep his Steals above two-a-game once he turned 35. On a Non-Fantasy Note: The Mavericks appear to be idiots right now for giving away Devin Harris, who appears to be in line for multiple All-Star Games before his career is over.
Nene. Not to toot our own horn, but we did list NeNe in our Center Sleepers prior to the season, marking him down for 15 Pts, 8 Reb, 1.2 Steals and 1.2 Blocks. Okay, the horn has been tooted, but now it’s time to sell NeNe? Absolutely. 64% from the Field? and he’s suddenly learned how to shoot Free Throws? I don’t think so. I’m not saying to throw NeNe in the trash for some has-been or borderline fantasy player, but his value will never be higher. With the health concerns NeNe carries as well, it’s better safe than sorry.
Joe Johnson. Joe John is in the prime of his career and averaging pretty close to his averages over the past 3 or 4 seasons, so why cut ties now? For one , he’s been picking up some of the slack that has been lost due to J Smoove being injured, Smith returns next week however. Secondly, is the mere fact that Joe John is a Top 10 player right now based on most fantasy ranking systems so far. If you can get a legitimate Top 10 player for Joe John, then pull the trigger immediately, I’d be shocked if JJ finished in the top 25 by the end of the year.
John Salmons. No Kevin Martin, no Francisco Garcia, somebody had to carry the load for the Kings. Salmons has been that guy so far, but Garcia is now back and Martin’s return is just around the corner. It’d be silly for any owner to want Salmons at his current value, but if you can pawn him off for a reasonable price, now is the time to do it. After KMart and Garcia are at full-speed, Salmons will be an afterthought.
OJ Mayo. A young rookie Shooting Guard on one of the youngest teams in the NBA, with literally no veteran leadership to be found within 100 counties, yikes. Mayo was my pick for Rookie of the Year prior to the season, but at what expense will that come, fantasy-wise. As the season progresses and each game means less and less for the Grizzlies, Mayo may be inclined to think more and more about himself. This will lead to a huge drop in FG% and a spike in Turnovers as well. Add this to the heavy workload of 82 games that every rookie must grind through, and you won’t be sorry trading away OJ now while his value is through the roof.
Spencer Hawes. This is another clear no-brainer. The Kings were very depleted early in the season, paving the way for Hawes to show what he’s got. It was actually very impressive what kind of numbers Hawes produced as a starter, but the minutes just won’t be there for him. Hawes is worth holding onto in a deep league, but his value for the remainder of the season is nowhere near the numbers he’s produced so far. If you need a bargaining chip to include, just throw out a quote from Kings GM demanding that Kings focus on developing their young players.
BUY LOW
Shawn Marion. I recently found ‘See Also: Shawn Marion’ listed in the Dictionary, listed under Consistency. So as I look at the numbers early this year and see Shawn Marion nowhere to be found in the list of Top 50 players thus far, I just laugh. Sure, it’s true that Miami doesn’t run the fast break, which has always been a big source of Marion’s points; The rest of the Box Score will do the talking for the Matrix this year, and we should see Marion move into the Top 20 players before long. Go get him now.
Kevin Martin. Only four players in the league reached the charity stripe more than Kevin Martin last year, and only 14 players shot a higher % from the line. Percentages can often be overlooked, but it is Kevin Martin’s main source of fantasy relevance. If your league doesn’t count FT%, don’t even think about trading for K-Mart…Otherwise, go make some offers to his owner right now, if it’s not too late.
Elton Brand. Brand has had over a year to recover from his ruptures Achilles, but you wouldn’t think so if you saw his box scores this season. His FG% is down 6%, his FTA are down two, his Points are three less than his career average and he’s turning the ball over at a rate similar to his Sophomore season. This looks like a classic case of playing less than 100%…. or maybe it is just “New Team Unfamiliarity.” Shifting from the West Coast to the East, and learning an entirely new offense can be difficult, give the man some time to adjust. I think you’ll like the results.
Gilbert Arenas. First Manu comes back early, and now Tony Parker, and Gilbert says he’d play right now if it were up to him. The Wizards are desperate for a scorer, and Hibachi is desperate to suit up, let the man play already. Did I mention the Wizards are 2-11? All the cool kids are coming back early, mid-December return? Nah, try early December.
Kevin Durant. Much of Durant’s value, like Kevin Martin, comes from his ability to shoot from the Free Throw Line. The rest of it comes from pure potential. With the recent coaching change in Oklahoma City, Durant has finally been moved to his natural position of Small Forward. Durant loves the move, which will not only help him mentally, but also will give him better matchups on the offensive side of the ball. Look for Durant to be a lot more aggresive, and raise his Free Throws Attempted over six a game. If you love what Kevin Martin’s stats have looked like the past two years, you can expect similar things from Durant this season. Wait no longer, steal Durant ASAP.
Rudy Gay. Rudy, Rudy, Rudy has just not been himself in this first 20% of the season. Gay’s numbers are down all across the board, and that’s not an exaggeration, it’s true. Barring injury, there would be no worse time to sell him than now. After all the kid is 22 years old, playing in his third NBA season, give him a break. Don’t give up on him if you own him, if you don’t own him, then “make some trade offers for Rudy Gay” should be written on your To-Do List. Gay will be posting his usual gaudy Box Scores before you can even blink an eye.
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