After three weeks of play the slowest player in the major leagues is…Brandon Inge. At least according to Fangraphs Speed Score. For this to mean anything, we must first find out what components go into this “speed score”.
- Stolen Base Percentage- It’s a little more complex than just Stolen Bases/Attempts, but that is the basic idea of this component.
- Stolen Base Frequency- Basic idea of this component is how often a player attempts to steal when they reach first base. Obviously this isn’t perfect because it doesn’t account for times when a player is blocked by a baserunner on 2nd base, but that’s besides the point.
- Triples- This component tiers the players triples percentage and ranks them 1-6 based on that percentage.
- Run Percentage- Like the other three components, this one also isn’t cut and dry, but the idea behind it is to find out how often the player scores when he reaches base, excluding home runs.
Now that we know how the Speed Score is determined, let’s take a look at some players that just aren’t showing the wheels that we are used to over the course of their careers. Then we can throw out some ideas on what this means going forward.
| Player | 2010 Speed | Career Speed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Inge | 0.1 | 4.1 | Offseason knee surgery on both knees |
| Paul Konerko | 0.2 | 1.9 | 12 of 24 hits are HR, only 15 Runs |
| Aramis Ramirez | 0.8 | 2.7 | 15 for 97 on the season... slumping or injured? |
| Andre Ethier | 0.9 | 3.9 | 9 of 16 runs coming off long balls |
| Miguel Tejada | 1.0 | 3.8 | Lowest career Speed Score was 2.6 in 2007 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 2.5 | 6.8 | Is his groin injury sapping his speed & top 5 fantasy value? |
| Mark Teixiera | 1.5 | 3.0 | Typical slow Tex start, or playing through an injury? |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 2.6 | 4.8 | He's getting on base, but where is the power? |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.8 | 2.2 | Not a player that relies on speed at all |
| Chris B. Young | 3.1 | 5.8 | Maybe a change in his approach to the game |
Theory 1: Injury
When a player tries to play through injury, his stats generally decrease across the board. It’s easy to see how a decrease in speed could be an indicator of a nagging injury.
Theory 2: Bad Luck
Maybe a player is getting on base but the lineup support behind him refuses to hit him in. This would hurt his Run Percentage. Maybe a player is getting blocked by teammates at second base. This would hurt his Steal Frequency and potentially his Run Percentage as well.
Theory 3: Small Sample Size
We’ve only played three weeks, and it’s a long season. It’s easy to see how a few stolen bases combined with a 3 or 4 run game could really boost a players Speed Score back into reality.
Players to Worry About
Aramis Ramirez – Aramis is no Cal Ripken. He has missed 165 days to injury over the past five seasons. In case you don’t have a calculator handy, that’s an average of 33 games missed per season. Ramirez is striking out at an alarming rate for him (25%) and not getting on base when he does hit it (.169 BABIP). Something smells fishy.
Hanley Ramirez – Hanley is on pace for less than 90 runs, less than 90 RBI and less than 15 stolen bases. His Speed Score suggest that his groin injury may be lingering. Groin injuries have a way of doing that. His value is still relatively high because he’s Hanley Ramirez, but it won’t be if he still has less than 5 stolen bases after May. I wouldn’t trade him for pennies on the dollar, but if you get a reasonable offer, I would definitely consider.
Just for fun, here is a list of the current Top 10 Speed Scores: Julio Borbon, Brett Gardner, Will Venable, Rafael Furcal, Drew Stubbs, Jose Reyes, Ian Desmond, Carl Crawford, Austin Jackson, Ben Zobrist. It will be interesting to track these players with declining speed and see if it affects the rest of their season, or if they get it turned around.
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Asdrubal to the DL and hanley benched for not hustling. That’s about all this has told us so far