Braves, Braves, Braves, Here They Come

“Here comes the Braves,
Here comes the Braves,
and I Say
It’s all right”

In case you’re living in a world in which you get all your information from SportsCenter, you probably are programmed to believe the NL Wild Card race is between the Rockies and Giants, and no other team has a chance.  In reality, the Braves have a legitimate shot at winning the Wild Card.  At 81-70, the Braves at 5.0 games back from the Colorado Rockies. Making up five games in two weeks?  Seems like a tough task, right?

It may be tough, but the schedule certainly helps.  In the Braves final 11 games, their Average Opponent Record is 60-89.  In comparison, the Rockies Average Opponent Record is almost the inverse, 81-69.  The Giants have an Average Opponent Record of 70-79.  While the Rockies are playing the Cardinals, Brewers and Dodgers, the Braves will be busy (or not so busy) beating up on the Nationals, Marlins, and then the Nationals again.

Since the All-Star Break, only four teams have scored more runs than the Braves, and only 2 teams have allowed fewer runs.

Using Pythagorean Win Percentage, the Braves should be 85-65, which is better pythagorean record than the Rockies, and even the Phillies.  However, there is a reason they play the games.  Using the Baseball Prospectus Pecota-Adjusted Playoff Odds, the Braves only had a 3.84% chance of winning the wild-card.  However, that was before the Braves won again tonight.

It won’t be easy overcoming five games in 11 games, but it’s certainly time we kick the Giants out of the spotlight, and welcome the Braves into the Wild-Card hunt.