It’s that time of year to make bold predictions. I can’t pinpoint why, but Pre-Season predictions are a lot of fun. I guess it’s fun to be the guy saying “I told you so” at the end of the season. Our first prediction victim is 40 year old uber-closer Mariano Rivera. Rivera is likely to go down in history as the greatest closer in Major League history. In the 14 seasons since becoming a closer, Rivera has posted a 2.04 ERA with an average of 38 Saves per year. Only once has he posted an ERA higher than 2.85, which was in 2007. That kind of consistency at the closer position is unheard of.
Having said that, I don’t believe another great year is in the works for Rivera. How many closers continue to produce past the age of 40? The list ends after Dennis Eckersley and Trevor Hoffman. Trevor Hoffman is able to excel at such an old age because he has one of the best changeup’s in baseball. I don’t think Rivera can replicate Hoffman’s success due to Rivera’s reliance almost entirely on his cutter. For a cutter to be effective it requires velocity. It’s inevitable that old players lose velocity. I’ve seen Rivera drafted as high as 40th overall this season. In my opinion, you’re playing with fire if you draft Rivera anywhere in the Top 100.
Bold Prediction:Mariano Rivera will pitch less than 60 innings, will blow more than 5 saves, and will have a 3.50+ ERA.
This prediction will be a fun one to root for, why? I don’t like the Yankees and I don’t like old players.
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