Batting average can be a tough category to predict. There are predictors you can use like Walk/Strikeout ratio, or expected BABIP. In the end, a lot of Batting Average ends up being decided by luck. Jay Bruce did not have the luck of the Irish on his side during his 2009 campaign. On the other hand Shin-Soo Choo has always found a way to get on base, but that doesn’t guarantee continued success.
- 2009: Jay Bruce – .229
- 2009: Shin-Shoo Choo – .300
- 2008: Jay Bruce – .254
- 2008: Shin-Shoo Choo – .309
Choo’s approach at the plate is all or nothing. He safely reaches base over 37% of the time when he puts the ball in play (BABIP). However, he struggles sometimes with strikeouts (26% in 2009). This may come back to haunt him in 2010. I expect Choo’s average to be in the .270-.285 range.
In 2009, Jay Bruce’s BABIP was .221, whish is horrendous. Much of this can be attributed to bad luck. Bruce saw his Speed score in 2009 decline significantly. The only explanation for this could be that he was hiding a leg injury in 2009 or he was out of shape. I expect Bruce to be in great condition, and ready to play his best baseball in 2010. I expect Bruce’s average to be in the .280-.300 range.
Prediction: Jay Bruce will have a higher Batting Average than Shin-Soo Choo in 2010.
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