I wasn’t planning on making this a regular feature but it got some good feedback and some people even cashed some lineups thanks to my crazy lineups. So let’s give this another go, and get you ready to play Fantasy PGA contests at DraftKings this week.
Before we get into lineups, let’s talk about expectations. If you want to look at expected value, you need to know what each finishing spot is going to provide you in DraftKings points. If we look at scores over the past three seasons we can expect the winner of the tournament to score around 126 DraftKings points, with a large majority of those coming on Sunday. Each of the past three winners has scored at least 27 DraftKings points during their Sunday Round. Take a look at the table below to see expectations for each finishing spot. Each column represents the average DraftKings points for that course.
One thing I want to point out is the importance of Pebble Beach Golf Links. Take a look at the Top 25 line and compare it to the Top 50 line. Notice how there is a 3.4 points difference between Pebble Beach scores but only a 0.1 and 1 point difference among the other courses. Basically if you can’t play Pebble well, you aren’t going to get into the Top 25. Of course this makes sense because Round 4 is also played at Pebble Beach, but it could easily be overlooked.
With that being said, let’s build our first lineup using Pebble Beach Scoring Average. I’m going to use a minimum of 5 rounds played at Pebble to qualify, and then just go down the line using the best available who fits under the salary remaining.
Team Pebble Beach
Matt Every ($8,200): Ranks 4th in Pebble Beach Scoring Average with 70.3 in 7 rounds.
Ricky Barnes ($7,300): 7 Rounds for Barnes with a Scoring Average of 70.3 as well. Playing with Tom Brady might help him discover how to win.
Jason Bohn ($6,800): Jason Bohn is Mr. Consistent at Pebble Beach, posting rounds Under Par in eight of his last ten rounds at the course.
Aaron Baddeley ($7,900): Baddeley loves playing Pebble Beach, so it’s no surprise he’s posted four Top 20s in five attempts. His last ten rounds at Pebble are all Par or Better.
Hunter Mahan ($9,600): Mahan has the consistency and the ability to go low. Seven of his last 10 rounds at Pebble have been under par with five of those being Sub-70.
This leaves us with $10,200 in salary. We just missed out on #1 and #2 at Pebble Beach, Dustin Johnson and Jason Day. However, Jimmy Walker, Phil Mickelson, and Brandt Snedeker all fit in nicely.
Team Good Form
This team will be comprised of players that are hot right now. DraftKings tightened their pricing since last week so I can’t go straight down the line like I could last week. Instead I will find the hottest golfer that fits under the salary cap and go from there. That means the hottest golfers like Jimmy Walker, K.J. Choi, and Chris Kirk might not make the team when all is said and done.
Matt Every ($8,200): 37th-13th-8th-36th-7th-47th
Jason Bohn ($6,800): 34th-33rd-3rd-102nd-40th-2nd
Brendon Todd ($8,600): 37th-6th-20th-49th-16th-26th-12th
K.J. Choi ($8,800): 42nd-2nd-20th-14th
Will Mackenzie ($8,100): 7th-13th-80th-12th-102nd-9th-15th
That leaves us with $9,500 left in salary. Unfortunately $100 away from Hunter Mahan. Not a great number. Our options from here are Charley Hoffman, Graeme McDowell, or Pat Perez.
Like the looks of this team? Try entering the $12 DraftKings Contest where the winner takes home $1,000.
This team will be based of performances in California tournaments since the start of 2012.
Will Mackenzie ($8,100): 7th-13th-9th
Robert Garrigus ($8,200): 28th-94th-12th-22nd-7th-16th-73rd-20th-94th-2nd
Freddie Jacobson ($8,400): 76th-81st-3rd-7th-15th-13th
Tyrone Van Aswegen ($7,200): 37th-25th-40th
K.J. Choi ($8,800): 2nd-33rd-15th-15th-24th
That leaves $9,300 left to spend on the last player spot. Jim Furyk has a good track record in Cali and only costs $8,900. Other options include Charlie Wi, Bryce Molder, Ryan Palmer, and Pat Perez.
Team Short Course
All three courses this week are less than 7,000 yards. That definitely fits into the classification of ‘Short Course’. Some players continually play better on short courses. Sometimes it’s because of their length, sometimes it’s just a coincidence. Either way, this team is full of players with recent success on short tracks.
Brian Gay ($7,500): 94th-32nd-45th-4th-61st-51st-1st-31st-28th-80th-20th-42nd-6th
Padraig Harrington ($8,100): 72nd-21st-84th-38th-11th-7th
Brendon Todd ($8,600): 6th-20th-49th-16th-113th-109th-19th-88th-9th-26th-13th
Patrick Reed ($8,500): 1st-7th-18th-7th-113th-111th-46th
Josh Teater ($7,200): 33rd-104th-23rd-56th-50th-93rd-15th-4th-35th-22nd-38th
That leaves you with $10,100 left to spend on your 6th golfer. Chris Kirk, Brandt Snedeker, Jordan Spieth, Jimmy Walker, and Phil Mickelson are all viable options in that range.
These are just a few ideas to help you make your lineups over at DraftKings. Let me know if you have any crazy requests for next week and I’ll see if I can make it happen. Until then, good luck and happy folfing! (Fantasy Golfing).