We are now at the All-Star Break, so there is no better time than now to sell high on some of your players who are overachieving. Here are five pitchers whose value is almost certainly at it’s peak:
1. Tommy Hanson. The hype machine known as Tommy Hanson will return great value on the trade market. With a 4-0 record and a 2.85 ERA after 7 starts, now is the time to cash in on the hype. A strand rate of 85% and 4.4 BB/9 implies that Tommy Boy’s “great” start is based on luck, luck that will not likely last the rest of the season. Cash in on the hype while the tide is high.
2nd Half Prediction: 73 Innings, 4 Wins, 70 Strikeouts, 4.63 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
2. Jair Jurrjens. JJ has a career high in Strand Rate, and a career low HR/Flyball Ratio. Jurrjens won’t be a disaster in the second half, but is certainly worth more in a trade then on your roster. Jurrjen’s post-ASB ERA will be closer to five than three.
2nd Half Prediction: 84 Innings, 6 Wins, 60 Strikeouts, 4.35 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
3. Clayton Kershaw. In my preseason article on pitchers with high injury risk, I said I expected Kershaw to hit a wall at some point during the season. I still stand by this statement, because it’s hard for young pitchers to increase their workload dramatically. Don’t be surprised if we see ClayShaw sporting a “Dead arm” or get shut down before the season is over.
2nd Half Prediction: 55 Innings, 3 Wins, 52 Strikeouts, 4.20 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
4. Edwin Jackson. Some had Edwin Jackson high on their sleepers lists when they learned of his new cutter he added this year. I kind of overlooked it, but I wish I hadn’t now. I am willing to admit that Jackson has become quite a bit better with his new arsenal of pitches, but I’m not willing to admit he is 2.52 ERA good. Jackson currently has a BABIP 54 points lower than his career average. Expect Edwin to regress a little bit towards the “old Edwin” we all knew before 2009.
2nd Half Prediction: 81 Innings, 5 Wins, 63 Strikeouts, 4.35 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
5. J.A. Happ. Fantasy owners have been extremely HAPPy with the results J.A. Happ has produced in the first half of the season. A 27 year old pitcher sporting a 2.90 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at the ASB will at least have a decent amount of trade value. Why won’t Happ keep up these numbers? Well, pitchers with 6.31 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9 generally don’t have ERA’s under four, let alone under three. Happ’s BABIP is incredibly low, and is also sporting an incredibly high Strand rate. Owners aren’t lining up for Happ like they are for the latest Harry Potter movie. However, if you can throw Happ into a trade for decent value, get rid of him now while you can still get anything for him.
2nd Half Prediction: 75 Innings, 3 Wins, 52 Strikeouts, 4.75 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
