5 Pitchers to Buy Low

I’ve given you five pitchers to sell high, now are the pitchers on the other side of the pendulum.  These buy low candidates are the type of players that can win you fantasy leagues.  In an ideal world you can pull off a trade giving away someone from the first post while acquiring one of these pitchers.

1. Ricky Nolasco. Time to buy Nolasco may be running out after his stellar June and July (5 Wins, 68 K – 13 BB, 2.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP).  However, if the Nolasco owner may be more inclined to look at his ugly ERA for the season, or may be upset by his two poor starts before the ASB.  The window to buy low is closing fast.  Nolasco’s has the 8th lowest Expected Fielding Independent Pitching in the entire majors, and all his peripherals seem to be right in line with last year.  His current ERA of 5.42 is just a case of bad luck.  Nolasco had a K/BB ratio of 8.12 last year after the ASB, so another great post-ASB performance would not be shocking by any means.

2nd Half Prediction: 74 IP, 5 Wins,  66 Strikeouts, 3.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

2. Cole Hamels. Hamels came out of the gates extremely laggy.  I think you can chalk that up to World Series Hangover mixed with a little bit of bad luck.  Hamel’s BABIP currently sits at .335, 42 points higher than his career BABIP.  That’s generally a sign of bad luck but can also be attributed to fatigue or just plaing laziness/overconfidence.    The good news for fantasy owners is that his ERA and WHIP won’t be getting any worse.  A simple regression to the mean in HR rate and Strand Rate would result in the Cole Hamels many have come to know and love over the past three seasons.

2nd Half Prediction: 76 IP, 5 Wins, 77 Strikeouts, 3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

3. Rich Harden. Harden’s injury troubles are well-known.  His dominance when healthy is just as well-known.  So why is a 27 year-old with a career ERA of 3.42 sporting a 4.76 ERA this year? You can blame injuries, you can blame luck, but the biggest stat that sticks out is his inability to throw a first pitch strike this year.  More importantly he’s falling behind 2-0 way too much.  Last year Harden reached a 2-0 count 96 times, he has already reached a 2-0 count 64 times in 2009.  Falling behind in the count is going to generally increase Home Runs hit against a pitcher, which is a huge reason Harden has been struggling.

2nd Half Prediction: 76 IP, 7 Wins, 78 Strikeouts, 3.59 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

4. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann just got put on the DL, retroactive to July 19th.  This may scare off the Zimmermann owner in your league, when in reality it is just the Nationals being smart, or “cautious” with the young stud.  Zimmermann was on pace for an inning increase of about 40, which we all know is a big no-no in pitcher development.  Zimmermann’s 9 to 3 K to BB ratio is much better than you can find on your waiver wire.  His .339 BABIP is probably due to a little bit of growing pains, and a little bit of bad luck.  Zimmermann should be good to go for the rest of the season once he returns from his current DL stint.  If he is dropped in your league then pick him up.  If he’s not on your team, then go offer some trades for him now.

2nd Half Prediction:  58 IP,  3 Wins, 58 Strikeouts,  3.65 ERA,  1.22 WHIP

5. Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa has improved his xFIP over the past two years, and is currently on pace for a 41 point improvement this year.  This constant improvement is what you like to see in your players, and could result in a big second half for Jorge.  De La Rosa is finding out that his Curveball is pretty useless, leading to him throwing on 6% Curveballs instead of his 9% from 2008 or 12% from 2007.  In the meantime this is resulting in fewer flyballs, which is very beneficial for a starting pitcher in Colorado.  If De La Rosa improves from the stretch then woah, look out.  Otherwise, you’re still looking at a pitcher that should have a very solid second half, for a really low price.

2nd Half Prediction: 75 IP, 5 Wins, 81 Strikeouts,  4.28 ERA,  1.26 WHIP

Honorable Mention: Scott Baker, Gio Gonzalez, Carl Pavano, Andy Sonnanstine, Felipe Paulino, Derek Holland, Paul Maholm

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