We’ve already given you three fantasy busts to avoid for the 2010 Fantasy MLB Season. Now, we have four more more players that will surely disappoint fantasy owners in 2010:
Mariano Rivera
Being Drafted: 70th
Mo Rivera may retire as the best closer ever, but 2010 will not be a fun season for him. He’s 40 years old, and the wheels are surely going to start falling off. Looking at his Pitch Values via Fan Graphs, we can see he throws his fastball less and less, relying solely on his cutter. Also, we can see that in 2009, Rivera was fooling less hitters based on lower batter Swing percentages, and higher batter contact percentages.
It’s probably not a popular thing for me to say the best closer in baseball history is not going to be worth owning in 2009, but I will say it anyway. Don’t waste your time with Mariano in 2010, you’ll thank me later.
Neftali Feliz
Being Drafted: 175th
I am all for starting a pitcher’s career as a relief pitcher. However, that’s assuming a normal Starting Pitcher’s workload in the minor leagues. Neftali Feliz did not have this. Averaging only 3.49 Innings per game in the minors, Feliz profiles more like a Jonathan Broxton than any ace.
The Rangers have decided to move Feliz into the rotation this season. Increasing his innings either means fatigue/injury will set in or he will have to tame his arm down, resulting in leff effectiveness.
There is not doubt that the talent it there, but I think a transition period is due in 2010. Considering Feliz is being drafted before David Price, you can consider him very overrated in 2010. If the Rangers stick him back in the bullpen, expect the same studly performance as last year.
Johan Santana
Being Drafted: 45th
Johan’s xFIP has trended downward for five consecutive years. Last year was the first time in Johan’s career that his xFIP ended at 4.00+, so do not be surprised if Santana’s ERA is on the wrong side of four in 2010. Factor in his injury troubles last year, and his age (31), and you really have to wonder why people are drafting Johan as the 7th best pitcher in the Majors. Don’t make the same mistake.
Jayson Werth
Being Drafted: 43rd
There is no denying that Jayson Werth was incredibly productive last season. He finally surpassed the 500 Plate Appearance threshold for the first season of his 7 year career. However, there is a reason he had never reached 500 Plate Appearances in any single season prior to 2009. The reason has been injuries. Using this handy Baseball Injury Tool, we can see that Werth is no stranger to the Disabled List. He has injured his wrist six times by itself, to go along with a plethora of bumps and bruises. As a Werth owner last season, I remember a lot of close calls when he appeared to injure his wrist, but managed to fight through it. For a 4th round pick, I am going to avoid a player who is coming off his first “full season” in the majors, at the age of 30. I would advise you to do the same.
Related posts:
- 2010 Fantasy MLB Busts Joe Mauer Being Draft: 12th Do you really want to...
- Bold Prediction: The Collapse of Mariano Rivera It’s that time of year to make bold predictions. I...
- 2010 MLB Schedule Spreadsheet Our good friends over at DailyBaseballData have compiled the 2010...