Joe Mauer
Being Draft: 12th
Do you really want to rely on your first round pick to hold up while playing the most physically demanding position on the diamond? Do you expect Mauer’s Home Run production to stay the same? You shouldn’t.
Mauer’s HR:FB Ratio in 2007 (7.2%) and 2008 (6.5%) was nearly tripled last year (20.4%). Rather than 28 Home Runs from Mauer, it would be safer to expect 8 to 15 that everyone was use to before 2009.
The average will be there, but injury concerns and power regression make him one of the dumber first round picks you could make.
Mark Reynolds
Being Drafted: 19th
Don’t be fooled by 2009 stats, Mark Reynolds is nearly the same hitter as Nelson Cruz. However, Cruz plays in a better hitter’s ballpark and was not as fortunate as Reynolds last year. So why is Mark Reynolds being drafted 45 spots before Cruz? That was rhetorical, don’t answer it.
Is Mark Reynolds’ 26% HR:FB Ratio sustainable? Not likely. Will he still hit 30+ Home Runs, most likely. However, the Stolen Bases should drop to the 10-15 range rather than the 24 Reynolds had in 2009. Reynolds should provide plenty of value to fantasy owners this season. However, that value is being sapped if you draft him in the first three rounds.
Jair Jurrjens
Being Drafted: 141st
In 2009 Jair Jurrjens benefited from a very high strand rate (79%) and a very low BABIP (.273). The result was an ERA at least one run lower than it “should” have been. Don’t act surprised when Jurrjens ERA baloons in 2010. Then you need to account for the scare that he may have had strucural damage in his throwing shoulder.
Jurrjens is a solid #3 or 4 Fantasy Starter when healthy, but the value just isn’t there in 2010.
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