What do A-Rod, Chipper Jones, Aubrey Huff, and Melvin Mora have in common? They all finished in Yahoo!’s Top 100 rankings last season, but should all be avoided in 2009. This isn’t a post about overpaying for those busts though, instead I will tell you about Five Third-Basemen you can snag much later:
1. Garrett Atkins, Col. Remember when Atkins hit .313/.402/.531 on the Road in 2006? What about last year when he hit .233/.278/.383 on the Road? Atkins is 29 years old and playing for a new contract. If he can manage to muster up at least a .260 AVG on the road, we are looking at a .305 AVG 90 R 25 HR 100 RBI season. Now if we can only work on him running the bases… Nah, let’s not get greedy here. I have confidence drafting Atkins anytime after the 40th pick, but he can generally be swooped up in the 65 to 70 range. Without Holliday, Atkins will be the big dawg in town, and may even hit in the clean-up spot.
2. Adrian Beltre, Sea. It’s contract season again for Adrian Beltre! I think we all remember his last contract year, 104 R 48 HR 121 RBI with a .334 AVG. It would be extremely foolish to expect a replication of those numbers, or even close to those numbers. However, Beltre is still a good age, is coming off of two surgeries to fix his nagging injuries, and is playing for a new contract. It would be reasonable to expect Beltre’s best season since 04′, making Beltre a great sleeper.
3. Mark Reynolds, Ari. Mark Reynolds had a record setting year in 2008, he broke the single season record for strikeouts in a season. In addition to that, Reynolds also made the most errors of any Third Basemen in 2008. Ok, Reynolds isn’t perfect, but he can hit the ball a long ways. At 25 years old, Reynolds is still learning, and he should make a big leap forward in 2008. If you want 30 Home Runs from the Hot Corner, look no further. Just don’t expect an Average higher than .265, beggars can’t be choosers.
4. Edwin Encarnacion, Cin. Edwin is one year older than Reynolds, but has a similar career pattern as Reynolds. Like Reynolds, he doesn’t hit for a high average, and commits a lot of errors in the field. Lucky for us fantasy owners, Errors aren’t a category in most fantasy formats. With 471 Career MLB games, 2009 is a make or break season determining whether Edwin is fantasy gold or just a pretty stone. The upside Edwin has shown makes you lean towards fantasy gold.
5. Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD. Kooze has been bothered by back problems his whole career, but has always mashed when he’s healthy. That explains the nickname of “Mashin’ Macedonian.” Kouzmanoff won’t do wonders for your team, but he can be swooped up very late in the draft, and should prove to be a very profitable, low-risk acquistion. He is going much later than players like Aubrey Huff and Troy Glaus, but should outproduce both third basemen in 2009.
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