10 of the Top 25 hitters last season were outfielders, so it’s not a shock that you can find some filthy sleepers in the Outfield department. In fact there are so many potential Outfield sleepers that I will divide this into two parts. This will be the first part, and will include five outfielders that will either break out or take the next step.
1. Justin Upton, Ari. Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford… those are just four of the players J-Up is often compared to. Most younger siblings just have to worry about measuring up to their big bro. Not in Justin’s case; many analysts would consider Justin Upton’s career a bit dissapointing if he didn’t surpass B.J. and then some. Bossman Junior may have a new boss starting this year, his brother Justin. It would not be surprising if Justin finished the season with more HRs, RBIs and a higher BA. The finished product I am expecting to see will produce 89 R 26 HR 87 RBI 13 SB with Add Newa .294 BA. Talk about a steal in the draft!
2. Jay Bruce, Cin. I don’t know if Jay officially sent out the memos, but the coming out party that was scheduled for 2008 got postponed. A .258 BA in 2008!?!? Wasn’t Bruce supposed to be polished and ready to mash? Forget about that notion, Bruce had plenty of adjustment issues. Bruce was not ready to face southpaws, shown by his .190/.263/.299 against Lefties. After an entire offseason to study his weaknesses, Bruce should be a force in the 2009 season. What can you expect in 2009? My educated prediction is: 86 R 31 HR 104 RBI 12 SB with a .292 BA. Don’t let him slip in your draft.
3. Chris B. Young, Ari. Chris Young was widely thought of as a dissapointment last year in Fantasy Leagues across the nation. Although Young had 65 more Plate Appearances, he hit 10 fewer Home Runs, and 13 fewer Stolen Bases. Those two categories were the reason he was so valuable in his rookie season. Rather than concluded that Young’s rookie season was a fluke, it’s important to look at the positives. First, Young is only 25 years old and entering his third full season as a major leaguer. Second, Young improved his K/BB ratio which shows his improved plate discipline. Lastly, although he hit 10 fewer Home Runs, his extra-base hit percentage did not drop, which means hisimprovement in plate discipline didn’t result in a loss of power. In 2009 you can expect Young to continue his improvement resulting in a .260+ BA, 90 R, 25 HR, 90 RBI and 20+ SBs. Crispy Young is definitely a bargain come draft day.
4. Jeff Francoeur, Atl. The ups and downs of Jeff Francoeur are well-documented. He was tagged as a phenom after hitting 29 HRs during his first full season in 2006. The following year he improved his plate discipline but saw a loss of power. Then he looked completely lost out there last season. While the other players on this list are players worth taking earlier than their ADP, Francoeur is a player that is going later in drafts, but has a great chance to return to 2006 form. I’m expecting 75 R 24 HR 89 RBI with a .285 BA. Those numbers would make Francoeur a great 3rd Outfielder for your squad.
5. Elijah Dukes, Wash. Unlike Francoeur, Dukes’ career has been focused on the negatives. Dukes has made it easy for the media with all the off-the-field problems. If Dukes is ready to put all that non-sense behind him and focus on baseball, look out. At the age of 24, Dukes is still young but now has some Major League experience to learn from. There aren’t many players with 20-20 potential that can be drafted as late as Dukes. I don’t see Dukes quite reaching 20 Steals but I think his power will easily surpass 20 bombs. 2009 Forecast: 82 R 24 HR 74 RBI 16 SB with a .281 BA. Elijah may be viewed as the Duke of D.C. with those numbers.
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