With a little more than a week until the regular season begins, we are beginning to see a clearer picture of who will be the “studs” and who will be the “duds” in the upcoming season. It seems to be getting more difficult for the starting Quarterbacks to stay healthy from Tom Brady getting pan caked by a 350-pound Haynesworth or new Bronco Kyle Orton getting a boo-boo on his index finger against the Bears this weekend. The Running Backs seem to be doing a better job of staying healthy in the warm-up games so let’s take a look at who is headed for a big fantasy season.
The “Sure Things”:
1: Adrian Peterson- With all due respect to Michael Turner’s emergence, if you have the first pick and don’t take “All Day” Adrian Peterson, do us a favor and drop out of your league right now. AP’s first two years may have had the typical RB growing pains but the kid is only 24 and is quite simply a beast at his position. In the first play from scrimmage in Monday Night’s match-up, AP took the ball 75 yards to the house for a touchdown against a very strong first-string Houston Texans defense. If he can hold on to the ball, look for Peterson to have a big season and at least 18 TD’s with Brett Favre opening up the passing game for the Viking offense.
2: Michael Turner- Turner came into Atlanta last season and made everyone look good. Matt Ryan had more time to learn the offense with a home run hitter like Turner behind him and Ryan looked good because of it. Turner had a league high 376 carries last year and certainly did some wear and tear on his body but the guy is a flat out machine. There may be some risk here but Turner will continue to get the ball as the Falcon offense continues to improve behind 2nd year QB Matt Ryan and newly acquired TE Tony Gonzalez. Expect the receptions number to be low but Turner should still give you a 15 TD/ 1,500 YD season.
3: Matt Forte- While I may not be sold on Cutler, Matt Forte made the Chicago front office look very good by selecting him with the 44th pick in the 2008 draft. This back amassed some impressive rookie numbers and has a very good opportunity to improve his strong reception numbers with Cutler and the Bears new offensive system. With Forte tying for the league lead in receiving targets last year with Orton at the helm, I would expect an improvement in both rushing and receiving yards by Forte in his sophomore season. Mark him down for a 13 TD/ 1,400 YD effort for 2009.
The “Coin Flips”:
1: Maurice Jones-Drew- Jones-Drew has the potential to become the “Jacksonville Savior” with the off-season exit of long time back Fred Taylor. The question here is whether Maurice can handle being the focus of the offense for a full season. MJD has never had an 1,000 YD rushing season and while he has very good receiver skills, if Jacksonville becomes a 1- man show defenses will be sitting on Jones-Drew and screen plays all season. I expect a 1200 YD/16 TD effort, which may warrant the 3rd pick in your league, but this season is all about stepping into the spotlight for MJD.
2: Stephen Jackson- Stephen Jackson is good. Stephen Jackson is very good. What we don’t know is how good are the St. Louis Rams. Jackson missed 5 games last year due to injury that may have had something to do with how horrendous STL’s O-Line was last year. The Rams made the moves to improve this with drafting Jason Smith with the #2 pick and getting a big time Center in free agency, but their offense may become predictable with Jackson being such a force in that offense. I still project big numbers for Stephen in the amount of a 15 TD/1,350 YD season but health and the new offensive line are my concerns for SJ in 2009.
The “Untouchables”:
1: The Carolina Panthers Duo- Let’s be clear here, both of these RB’s are highly skilled at their position. If you are able to pick up DeAngelo Williams in the late 1st- early 2nd round, go for it. Williams did lead all RB’s in fantasy points last year with a strong second half. My apprehension lies in the fact that Williams and young gun Jonathon Stewart may be splitting carries this season. When you have two first-round franchise backs like the Panthers do, you need to do your best to keep them both happy. The problem is you may have a “fantasy handcuff” situation in which Williams and Stewart will hurt each others fantasy output by both having strong seasons and therefore splitting carries… and the fantasy potential.
PREDICTIONS:
Biggest Stud:
“All Day” Adrian Peterson
Biggest Disappointment:
The Carolina Panthers Backfield
Biggest New Star:
Shonn Greene (Rookie, NYJ)
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