We’ve already given you three fantasy busts to avoid for the 2010 Fantasy MLB Season. Now, we have four more more players that will surely disappoint fantasy owners in 2010:

Mariano Rivera

Being Drafted: 70th

Mo Rivera may retire as the best closer ever, but 2010 will not be a fun season for him. He’s 40 years old, and the wheels are surely going to start falling off. Looking at his Pitch Values via Fan Graphs, we can see he throws his fastball less and less, relying solely on his cutter. Also, we can see that in 2009, Rivera was fooling less hitters based on lower batter Swing percentages, and higher batter contact percentages.

It’s probably not a popular thing for me to say the best closer in baseball history is not going to be worth owning in 2009, but I will say it anyway. Don’t waste your time with Mariano in 2010, you’ll thank me later.

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Joe Mauer

Being Draft: 12th

Do you really want to rely on your first round pick to hold up while playing the most physically demanding position on the diamond? Do you expect Mauer’s Home Run production to stay the same? You shouldn’t.

Mauer’s HR:FB Ratio in 2007 (7.2%) and 2008 (6.5%) was nearly tripled last year (20.4%). Rather than 28 Home Runs from Mauer, it would be safer to expect 8 to 15 that everyone was use to before 2009.

The average will be there, but injury concerns and power regression make him one of the dumber first round picks you could make.

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We have started to compile a list of prospects that we have rated. This list is still at an early stage, but will be growing daily:

Fantasy Baseball Pitching Prospects

Look for more prospects to be rated in the near future.

We have started to compile a list of hitting prospects that we have rated. This list is still at an early stage, but will be growing daily. Our list of pitching prospects will be coming soon as well.

Fantasy Baseball Hitting Prospects

The “Opportunity” rating is a good place to start if you want to find immediate help for your fantasy team. If a player has an A- or better Opportunity rating then we expect them to at least get a shot in the bigs at some point in 2010.

The 2009 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year, Jason Heyward, is an absolute stud on the diamond. He literally has no flaws in his game, and should be an instant fantasy man-crush for anyone that has the pleasure to own him.

Let’s see how Heyward grades out:

• Power.Heyward already has 30+ Home Run power. With Heyward’s 6′4″ frame it would not be surprising if that turns into 40+ Home Runs.
  Grade: A+
• Contact.Heyward has tremendous patience at the plate, and he does not strikeout at an alarming rate. Unlike Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein, I do not think Hayward will be competing for batting titles. During his prime years, I think a Batting Average in the range of 290-310 is more reasonable.
  Grade: A-
• Speed.Doesn’t attempt a lot of steals, but his Speed Scores suggest that Heyward is a smart base runner that could eventually turn into stolen bases.
  Grade: A-

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